Mexico - Liga MXEstadio Nemesio DíezData current as of August 30, 2026

Toluca vs Juárez: match statistics

Reasoning:

Full analysis and pick in the app

Check the betting analysis, pick, value bet and full reasoning for this match.

Check analysis and pick

Toluca vs Juárez: form, goals and key statistics

Game details

Toluca plays Juárez in Liga MX (Mexico). The game is scheduled for August 31, 2026. Venue: Estadio Nemesio Díez.

Recent form

Toluca has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 2.00 points per game. Juárez has 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses, with 0.00 points per game.

Scoring records

Toluca scores 1.60 goals per game and allows 0.80. Juárez scores 0.60 and allows 3.00. Games in this league average 2.83 goals.

BTTS and goal totals

Both teams score in 60% of Toluca's games and 60% of Juárez's. The Over 2.5 rates are 60% and 60%, compared with league averages of 60% for BTTS and 54% for Over 2.5.

xG and shots

Toluca has the higher season xG average, 1.81 to 0.93 per game. Toluca takes 17.2 shots per game, while Juárez takes 8.2.

First-half and second-half trends

Toluca leads at halftime in 60% of its games and scores 0.80 goals per game after halftime. Juárez leads at halftime in 0% and scores 0.00 after halftime.

When the teams score

Toluca's most productive scoring window is minutes 31-45+ (2 goals). For Juárez, it is minutes 31-45+ (3 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.

League scoring profile

Liga MX games average 2.83 goals. Both teams score in 60% of games, and 54% finish with at least three goals.

Head-to-head record

Before this game, 4 previous meetings were available. The record was 3 home wins, 1 draw and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 2.25 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.

Before kickoff

1X2 odds

(-)
(-)
(-)

Pre-game profilewhat do the season numbers say?

This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.

1.6Goals scored / game0.6
TolucaJuárez
0.8Goals allowed / game3
TolucaJuárez
62%Average possession43%
TolucaJuárez
5.2Shots on target / game1.6
TolucaJuárez

Team statswho is more efficient?

Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.

17.2Shots per game8.2
TolucaJuárez
5.2Shots on target1.6
TolucaJuárez
9.3%Shot conversion7.3%
TolucaJuárez
62%Possession43%
TolucaJuárez
1.81xG for0.93
TolucaJuárez
1.27xG against2.07
TolucaJuárez

Shooting quality

Toluca: DominantJuárez: Balanced
TolucaJuárez
Accuracy (shots on target)30%20%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.110.11
Finishing (goals per shot on target)0.310.37

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team formwho is in better shape?

Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.

Toluca
WLWDW
Season result split
60% W20% R20% P
Season (W-D-L)
3-1-1
2.00 pts / game · goal difference +4
Last 5 (W-D-L)
3-1-1
2.00 pts / game
Record at home (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Last 5 at home
1-0-1
LW
Last 5 games - averages
Goals scored: 1.6Goals conceded: 0.8xG: 1.81Opponent xG: 1.27BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 60%
Juárez
LLLLL
No win in the last 5 games
Season result split
0% W0% R100% P
Season (W-D-L)
0-0-5
0.00 pts / game · goal difference -12
Last 5 (W-D-L)
0-0-5
0.00 pts / game
Record away (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Last 5 away
0-0-2
LL
Last 5 games - averages
Goals scored: 0.6Goals conceded: 3.0xG: 0.93Opponent xG: 2.07BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 60%

Goalshow do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

Toluca is 167% better for: goals scored per game.

1.6 goals / game - Toluca · 0.6 goals / game - Juárez

Toluca is 275% better for: goals allowed per game.

0.8 goals / game - Toluca · 3 goals / game - Juárez

Toluca scoring profile: very strong

Toluca scores in 80% of games (4 of 5 meczów), while Juárez keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 5 meczów).

Juárez scoring profile: mixed

Juárez scores in 60% of games (3 of 5 meczów), while Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 40% (2 of 5 meczów).

8Goals scored (season)3
TolucaJuárez
4Goals conceded (season)15
TolucaJuárez
2.4Average goals per game3.6
TolucaJuárez
8Goals scored (last 5)3
TolucaJuárez
4Goals conceded (last 5)15
TolucaJuárez

How often they score at least...

80%1 goal60%
TolucaJuárez
60%2 goals0%
TolucaJuárez
20%3 goals0%
TolucaJuárez
0%4 goals0%
TolucaJuárez

How often they concede at least...

60%1 goal100%
TolucaJuárez
20%2 goals60%
TolucaJuárez
0%3 goals40%
TolucaJuárez
0%4 goals40%
TolucaJuárez

* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)how often do both teams score?

How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.

Goal patterns

20%BTTS at half-time60%
TolucaJuárez
0%BTTS in both halves0%
TolucaJuárez
40%Scored in both halves0%
TolucaJuárez

BTTS and goal count

60%Min. 3 goals and BTTS60%
TolucaJuárez
0%Min. 3 goals without BTTS0%
TolucaJuárez
60%BTTS - last 560%
TolucaJuárez

Goal count (Over/Under)how often do these games cross the goal lines?

See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.

1st half

60%Min. 1 goal before half-time80%
TolucaJuárez
20%Min. 2 goals before half-time60%
TolucaJuárez
20%Min. 3 goals before half-time40%
TolucaJuárez

2nd half

80%Min. 1 goal after half-time80%
TolucaJuárez
40%Min. 2 goals after half-time40%
TolucaJuárez
20%Min. 3 goals after half-time0%
TolucaJuárez

Game halveswhen do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

Toluca is 450% better for: first-half form (half-time points).

2.2 pts / game - Toluca · 0.4 pts / game - Juárez

Toluca - half-time state
60% leading40% draw0% trailing
Juárez - half-time state
0% leading40% draw60% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

2.2Points per game (1st half)0.4
TolucaJuárez
0.8Goals scored (1st half)0.6
TolucaJuárez
0.2Goals conceded (1st half)1.8
TolucaJuárez
1Average goals (1st half)2.4
TolucaJuárez
80%Clean sheet before half-time20%
TolucaJuárez
40%No goal before half-time40%
TolucaJuárez

After half-time (2nd half)

2Points per game (2nd half)0.2
TolucaJuárez
0.8Goals scored (2nd half)0
TolucaJuárez
0.6Goals conceded (2nd half)1.2
TolucaJuárez
1.4Average goals (2nd half)1.2
TolucaJuárez
60%Clean sheet after half-time20%
TolucaJuárez
40%No goal after half-time100%
TolucaJuárez

Toluca - second-half results

60% W20% R20% P
11
Half-time points
4
Half-time goals
+3
Goal difference (1st half)
10
Second-half points
+1
Goal difference (2nd half)
2.20
PPG before half-time
Lead holding100%

Leads at halftime in 60% of games and wins 60%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.

Defense after halftime+0.4

Allows 0.4 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.

Juárez - second-half results

0% W20% R80% P
2
Half-time points
3
Half-time goals
-6
Goal difference (1st half)
1
Second-half points
-6
Goal difference (2nd half)
0.40
PPG before half-time
Defense after halftime-0.6

Defense stays consistent across the full game.

Toluca - last 5 games by half
1st half2nd half
Points per game2.202.00
Goals scored / game0.80.8
Goals allowed / game0.20.6
Average goals per game1.01.4
1 goal60%80%
2 goals20%40%
3 goals20%20%
Clean sheet80%60%
No goal40%40%
Goal difference+3+1
Half-time: 60% leading - 40% draw - 0% trailing
2nd half: 60% won - 20% draw - 20% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 4
Juárez - last 5 games by half
1st half2nd half
Points per game0.400.20
Goals scored / game0.60.0
Goals allowed / game1.81.2
Average goals per game2.41.2
1 goal80%80%
2 goals60%40%
3 goals40%0%
Clean sheet20%20%
No goal40%100%
Goal difference-6-6
Half-time: 0% leading - 40% draw - 60% trailing
2nd half: 0% won - 20% draw - 80% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 60% - Half-time goals total: 3

* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.

Goals by minutewhen do goals arrive?

The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.

Toluca
ScoredConceded
1
0
0-15
1
0
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
1
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.

Juárez
ScoredConceded
0
3
0-15
0
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
0
2
46-60
0
1
61-75
0
3
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicatorswhat do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.

Game profile

3.00
Estimated goals
attack vs. opponent defense
2.3 : 0.7
Estimated goal split
home : away
106%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
60%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
-25%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
48%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
8%
0:0 risk
about 1 in 13 matches
0-1
Most common goal range
attack vs. defense for both teams

Toluca

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.54
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.26
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-2.0 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.21
Defensive efficiency
Does the defense or goalkeeper outperform the chances allowed? A positive value means the team allows fewer goals than its xGA suggests.
+0.47
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
108%
Defense vs. league
Goals allowed compared with the league average. An 80% score means 20% fewer goals allowed.
59%
Form trend
Compares points from the last five games with the full-season average.
0.00
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
0.0
Late goals
13% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 13% come in the first quarter-hour.
13%

Juárez

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
-1.14
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
-1.26
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-0.6 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.33
Defensive efficiency
Does the defense or goalkeeper outperform the chances allowed? A positive value means the team allows fewer goals than its xGA suggests.
-0.93
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
44%
Defense vs. league
Goals allowed compared with the league average. An 80% score means 20% fewer goals allowed.
203%
Form trend
Compares points from the last five games with the full-season average.
0.00
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
-0.6
Late goals
0% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 0% come in the first quarter-hour.
0%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.

League contextis this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).

Teams vs league

TolucaLigaJuárez
Average goals per game 2.402.83 3.60
Both teams scored 60%60% 60%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) 60%54% 60%
Clean sheets 40%24% 0%
Goal before half-time 60%65% 80%
Goal after half-time 80%87% 80%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

2.83
Average goals per game
60%
Both teams scored
54%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
24%
Clean sheets
1.48
Home goals / game
1.35
Away goals / game
+10%
Home attack advantage
+9%
Home defensive advantage
+2%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
65%
1 goal
33%
2 goals
13%
3 goals
6%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
87%
1 goal
50%
2 goals
19%
3 goals
6%
4 goals

Head-to-head

Record from Toluca's perspective: 3 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses against Juárez. Games average 2.25 goals, and both teams scored in 50% of them.

FAQ

When do Toluca and Juárez play?

Toluca face Juárez on August 31, 2026 in Liga MX at Estadio Nemesio Díez. The exact kick-off time in your timezone is shown at the top of the match page.

What is the head-to-head record between Toluca and Juárez?

In the last 4 head-to-head matches Toluca won 3, Juárez won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.25 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.

What do the goal statistics show before Toluca vs Juárez?

Toluca score 1.60 goals per game on average and Juárez 0.60. The Liga MX average is 2.83 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 60% of Toluca's matches and 60% of Juárez's.

What form are Toluca and Juárez in?

Over the last 5 games Toluca have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Juárez 0-0-5 (0.00 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Toluca vs Juárez?

The statistical background for Toluca vs Juárez — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.