Toluca vs Necaxa: match statistics
Toluca vs Necaxa: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Toluca played Necaxa in Liga MX (Mexico). The match was played on 3 August 2026. Venue: Estadio Nemesio Díez. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Toluca: 1-0-1, 1.50 points/match. Necaxa: 2-0-0, 3.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Toluca scores 1.50 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Necaxa scores 2.00 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.85 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Toluca 50%, Necaxa 100%. Over 2.5: Toluca 50%, Necaxa 100%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 58%.
xG, shots and style
Toluca has higher xG: 1.82 vs 1.74. Toluca: 15.5 shots per match, Necaxa: 15.0.
Match halves
Toluca: half-time lead 100%, second-half goals 0.50. Necaxa: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 2.00.
Goals by minute
Toluca: 0-15 (1 goals). Necaxa: 76-90+ (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga MX: 2.85 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 58%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 3.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win: Toluca’s home creative output is materially higher than Necaxa’s available away data — Toluca’s home average xG is 1.84, with an average of 17 shots and 4 on target per game, while Necaxa’s away xG and shot averages are recorded as 0.00 and no data. In the last 5 matches the hosts have scored 8 and conceded 5 (goal difference +3), whereas Necaxa have scored 6 and conceded 7 (goal difference −1), which favors Toluca in terms of attacking efficiency and relative defensive stability. Necaxa have a slightly higher points-per-game in the last 5 (1.6 vs Toluca’s 1.4) and 2 wins in that period, but the visitors have leaked 7 goals across five games, while Toluca, although conceding on average 2 goals at home, generate a higher xG (1.84), providing greater goal potential. Additionally Toluca maintain 66% possession at home and have 0% of home matches without scoring, so with higher shot volume and an xG advantage I assess their probability of winning as higher than a draw or loss.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I select the 'yes' scenario (BTTS - Yes) at 70% probability vs 'no' 30% because form balance, xG and recent results favor both teams scoring. Necaxa has 80% BTTS in the last 5 matches, Toluca 40% in the last 5, giving a form-based average of 60%, while the league BTTS rate is 61%. Toluca's last five matches show attacking xG 2.04 and 8 goals scored, whereas Necaxa conceded 7 goals in that period with xG against 1.5, indicating hosts are creating chances and visitors are allowing them. Seasonally Toluca shows seasonBTTS 100% and a season scoring average of 2.0, but the away season data for the visitors is incomplete (seasonScoredAVG_away 0.0), so we place greater weight on the last-5 data and league statistics. Overall: Toluca's higher xG (2.04) versus xG against 1.5, 8 scored and 7 conceded in the last 5, and the 61% league rate provide a strong signal for 'yes' with a moderate margin of uncertainty.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Toluca averages 2.0 goals per game this season with xG 1.74, averages 15 shots with 7 on target and has a 13% conversion. In the last 5 matches Toluca’s xG rose to 2.04 and the team scored 8 goals in those five games. Necaxa’s season data is partially incomplete (many values 0.0), but in the last 5 matches they have xG 1.20, average 1.2 goals and conceded 7 goals (1.4 per game). The league averages 2.78 goals per match, 61% of games finish Over 2.5, and Toluca has 100% Over 2.5 and 100% BTTS this season, increasing the likelihood of at least two goals. The model expects ~1.85 goals for Toluca and ~1.15 for Necaxa (total 3.00), therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (92%); Over 2.5 is moderately likely (68%), and Over 3.5 is unlikely (29%) given Toluca has 0% of games Over 3.5 this season.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Season statistics favor Toluca: on average 2.0 goals per match and xG 1.74 versus 0.96 conceded, with 15.0 shots and 7.0 on target and a 100% win rate this season (an average of 3.0 points per match), which strongly supports a home victory. Half-Time data, however, show a tendency toward draws — Toluca were tied at the break in 2 of 2 season matches (100%), and the home side’s average goals at the break is 0.0. The decisive factor is the second half: the hosts score an average of 2.0 goals after the break in the last 5 matches and 100% of those games had over 0.5 goals in the second half, with 3 goals occurring in minutes 76–90, which increases the chance of a turnaround after the break. Given the xG advantage, shot volume and dominance in Full-Time results, I select the scenario Half-Time draw and Toluca win Full-Time (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Toluca | Necaxa | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 47% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Necaxa is 100% better for: last-5 form.
1.5 pts / match - Toluca · 3 pts / match - Necaxa
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Necaxa is 33% better for: goals scored per match.
1.5 goals / match - Toluca · 2 goals / match - Necaxa
Toluca scores in 100% of matches (2 of 2 matches), while Necaxa keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 2 matches).
Necaxa scores in 100% of matches (2 of 2 matches), while Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 50% (1 of 2 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Toluca
Over / Under — Necaxa
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Toluca is 200% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
3 pts / match - Toluca · 1 pts / match - Necaxa
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Toluca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 100% of matches and wins 50%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 1.0 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Necaxa - second-half results
Concedes 1.0 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 50% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 50% |
| No goal | 0% | 50% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.0 | 3.0 |
| 1 goal | 0% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 0% |
| No goal | 100% | 0% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (1 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Toluca
Necaxa
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| Toluca | Liga | Necaxa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.50 | 2.85 | ▲ 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 58% | ▲ 100% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 58% | ▲ 100% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 23% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 69% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 88% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Toluca 2 - 0 - 0 Necaxa. Average goals 3.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Toluca vs Necaxa?
The Liga MX match finished Toluca 3:1 Necaxa. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Toluca and Necaxa?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Toluca won 2, Necaxa won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Toluca vs Necaxa?
Toluca score 1.50 goals per game on average and Necaxa 2.00. The Liga MX average is 2.85 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 58% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Toluca's matches and 100% of Necaxa's.
What form are Toluca and Necaxa in?
Over the last 5 games Toluca have a 1-0-1 record (1.50 points per game) and Necaxa 2-0-0 (3.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Toluca vs Necaxa?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Toluca vs Necaxa: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.