Toluca vs Necaxa: match statistics
Toluca vs Necaxa: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Toluca played against Necaxa in Liga MX (Mexico). The game was played on August 3, 2026. Venue: Estadio Nemesio Díez. Final score: 3:1.
Recent form
Toluca has 1 win, 0 draws and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 1.50 points per game. Necaxa has 2 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses, with 3.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Toluca scores 1.50 goals per game and allows 1.00. Necaxa scores 2.00 and allows 1.00. Games in this league average 2.85 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 50% of Toluca's games and 100% of Necaxa's. The Over 2.5 rates are 50% and 100%, compared with league averages of 58% for BTTS and 58% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Toluca has the higher season xG average, 1.82 to 1.74 per game. Toluca takes 15.5 shots per game, while Necaxa takes 15.0.
First-half and second-half trends
Toluca leads at halftime in 100% of its games and scores 0.50 goals per game after halftime. Necaxa leads at halftime in 0% and scores 2.00 after halftime.
When the teams score
Toluca's most productive scoring window is minutes 0-15 (1 goals). For Necaxa, it is minutes 76-90+ (3 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Liga MX games average 2.85 goals. Both teams score in 58% of games, and 58% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 2 previous meetings were available. The record was 2 home wins, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win: Toluca’s home creative output is materially higher than Necaxa’s available away data — Toluca’s home average xG is 1.84, with an average of 17 shots and 4 on target per game, while Necaxa’s away xG and shot averages are recorded as 0.00 and no data. In the last 5 matches the hosts have scored 8 and conceded 5 (goal difference +3), whereas Necaxa have scored 6 and conceded 7 (goal difference −1), which favors Toluca in terms of attacking efficiency and relative defensive stability. Necaxa have a slightly higher points-per-game in the last 5 (1.6 vs Toluca’s 1.4) and 2 wins in that period, but the visitors have leaked 7 goals across five games, while Toluca, although conceding on average 2 goals at home, generate a higher xG (1.84), providing greater goal potential. Additionally Toluca maintain 66% possession at home and have 0% of home matches without scoring, so with higher shot volume and an xG advantage I assess their probability of winning as higher than a draw or loss.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I select the 'yes' scenario (BTTS - Yes) at 70% probability vs 'no' 30% because form balance, xG and recent results favor both teams scoring. Necaxa has 80% BTTS in the last 5 matches, Toluca 40% in the last 5, giving a form-based average of 60%, while the league BTTS rate is 61%. Toluca's last five matches show attacking xG 2.04 and 8 goals scored, whereas Necaxa conceded 7 goals in that period with xG against 1.5, indicating hosts are creating chances and visitors are allowing them. Seasonally Toluca shows seasonBTTS 100% and a season scoring average of 2.0, but the away season data for the visitors is incomplete (seasonScoredAVG_away 0.0), so we place greater weight on the last-5 data and league statistics. Overall: Toluca's higher xG (2.04) versus xG against 1.5, 8 scored and 7 conceded in the last 5, and the 61% league rate provide a strong signal for 'yes' with a moderate margin of uncertainty.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Toluca averages 2.0 goals per game this season with xG 1.74, averages 15 shots with 7 on target and has a 13% conversion. In the last 5 matches Toluca’s xG rose to 2.04 and the team scored 8 goals in those five games. Necaxa’s season data is partially incomplete (many values 0.0), but in the last 5 matches they have xG 1.20, average 1.2 goals and conceded 7 goals (1.4 per game). The league averages 2.78 goals per match, 61% of games finish Over 2.5, and Toluca has 100% Over 2.5 and 100% BTTS this season, increasing the likelihood of at least two goals. The model expects ~1.85 goals for Toluca and ~1.15 for Necaxa (total 3.00), therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (92%); Over 2.5 is moderately likely (68%), and Over 3.5 is unlikely (29%) given Toluca has 0% of games Over 3.5 this season.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Season statistics favor Toluca: on average 2.0 goals per match and xG 1.74 versus 0.96 conceded, with 15.0 shots and 7.0 on target and a 100% win rate this season (an average of 3.0 points per match), which strongly supports a home victory. Half-Time data, however, show a tendency toward draws — Toluca were tied at the break in 2 of 2 season matches (100%), and the home side’s average goals at the break is 0.0. The decisive factor is the second half: the hosts score an average of 2.0 goals after the break in the last 5 matches and 100% of those games had over 0.5 goals in the second half, with 3 goals occurring in minutes 76–90, which increases the chance of a turnaround after the break. Given the xG advantage, shot volume and dominance in Full-Time results, I select the scenario Half-Time draw and Toluca win Full-Time (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Toluca | Necaxa | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 47% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Necaxa is 100% better for: last-5 form.
1.5 pts / game - Toluca · 3 pts / game - Necaxa
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Necaxa is 33% better for: goals scored per game.
1.5 goals / game - Toluca · 2 goals / game - Necaxa
Toluca scores in 100% of games (2 of 2 games), while Necaxa keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 2 games).
Necaxa scores in 100% of games (2 of 2 games), while Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 50% (1 of 2 games).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Toluca
Over / Under - Necaxa
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Toluca is 200% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
3 pts / game - Toluca · 1 pts / game - Necaxa
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Toluca - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 100% of games and wins 50%. Sometimes gives up a halftime lead.
Allows 1.0 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Necaxa - second-half results
Allows 1.0 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 50% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 50% |
| No goal | 0% | 50% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 0.0 | 3.0 |
| 1 goal | 0% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 0% |
| No goal | 100% | 0% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (1 goal). Concedes most in 46-60 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Toluca
Necaxa
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| Toluca | Liga | Necaxa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.50 | 2.85 | ▲ 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 58% | ▲ 100% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 58% | ▲ 100% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 23% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 69% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 88% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Toluca's perspective: 2 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses against Necaxa. Games average 3.50 goals, and both teams scored in 50% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Toluca vs Necaxa?
The Liga MX match finished Toluca 3:1 Necaxa. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Toluca and Necaxa?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Toluca won 2, Necaxa won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Toluca vs Necaxa?
Toluca score 1.50 goals per game on average and Necaxa 2.00. The Liga MX average is 2.85 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 58% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Toluca's matches and 100% of Necaxa's.
What form are Toluca and Necaxa in?
Over the last 5 games Toluca have a 1-0-1 record (1.50 points per game) and Necaxa 2-0-0 (3.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Toluca vs Necaxa?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Toluca vs Necaxa: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.