TPS vs Jaro: match statistics

I predict a home win (1). TPS wins 67% of matches at home, scores an average of 1.33 goals and concedes only 0.67 goals per game; at home they keep a clean sheet in 50% of matches and fail to score in 0% of matches (always find the net). Jaro have yet to win away (0% wins), average 0.29 goals scored, concede 2.57 goals and fail to score in 71% of away matches, with only 2% shot conversion. The quality gap is clear: TPS records an average of 4 shots on target at home with a 15% conversion, while Jaro have 3.57 shots on target and 2% conversion; the visitors conceded 13 goals in the last 5 matches, compared to just 4 for TPS. Additionally, TPS generate average xG of 1.21 at home with xG against 1.79, but actually concede 0.67 goals per game, indicating solid defense and efficiency, therefore I assess the chances as: home win 70%, draw 18%, Jaro win 12%.

I back BTTS - Yes because TPS has a season goals average of 1.5 and concedes 1.67 goals per match, while Jaro concedes 2.57 goals this season — increasing the likelihood TPS scores. Jaro scores only 0.29 goals seasonally, but their away xG is 1.36 and they have scored 7 goals in the last 5 matches (1.4 avg), so they can create chances and have been scoring more recently. Season-long BTTS rates are mixed (TPS 67% vs Jaro 29%), but the last 5 matches show the opposite trend (20% for TPS vs 60% for Jaro), which supports both teams scoring now. Mitigating risks include Jaro’s very low shot conversion of 2% and TPS conceding only 0.8 goals on average in the last 5 matches. Nevertheless, low clean sheet expected rates for both teams (17% and 14%) and TPS and Jaro xG of 1.46 and 1.36 respectively lead me to prefer BTTS - Yes.

The total expected xG for the match is 2.83 (TPS 1.53 vs Jaro 1.30), indicating a likelihood of multiple goals. Season stats show TPS have 83% of matches over 1.5 goals and Jaro 86% — an average of 84.5% for both teams, while Jaro concedes 2.57 goals per game on average and have let in 28 goals this season, increasing the risk of goals. TPS average 5.0 shots on target with a 14% conversion rate versus Jaro’s 3.57 shots on target and 2% conversion, so the home side demonstrate markedly better efficiency with more clear-cut chances. The 2.5 line gives mixed signals (season over 2.5: TPS 50% vs Jaro 57%, average 53.5%), whereas the xG sum of 2.83 provides a moderate edge for Over 2.5 (~55%). Therefore the strongest and most reliable pick is Over 1.5 (approx. 85%), Over 2.5 can be considered as a secondary option (~55%), and Over 3.5 appears unlikely (~32%).

First-half statistics strongly favor TPS: the hosts average 1.0 goal by half-time versus Jaro’s 0.14; TPS led at the break in 3 of 6 home matches (50%). Jaro has serious defensive and finishing issues — they concede an average of 2.57 goals per game, have conceded 3 goals in the 0–15 minute window and as many as 5 goals in 46–60 minutes, while their shot conversion rate is only 2% compared with TPS’s 14%. In terms of chance quality, TPS posts an xG of 1.46 versus Jaro’s 1.36, averages 5.0 shots on target versus the visitors’ 3.57, and converts more chances while Jaro suffers a higher xG conceded (1.6), all of which favors the home side. Season data corroborate the advantage: TPS scores 1.5 goals per game and concedes 1.67, has accumulated 10 points in halves and averages 1.67 points at half-time, whereas Jaro averages 0.29 goals per game and 5 points in halves (0.71 points at half-time). Consequently, the most likely scenario is TPS leading at half-time and winning after 90 minutes (1/1) — I assign it a 55% probability, leave 15% for 1/X and 12% for X/1 as the most realistic alternatives, and regard the remaining outcomes as unlikely.