TransINVEST Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen: match statistics

TransINVEST Vilnius holds a clear seasonal advantage: they sit 3rd and have scored 27 goals this season versus Hegelmann’s 16, although in the last 5 matches the visitors have 9 goals compared to the hosts’ 8. At home TransINVEST averages 1.29 goals scored and only 0.71 conceded, while Hegelmann on the road averages 0.83 goals scored and concedes 2.00 per game, indicating weaknesses in the visitors’ defense. The hosts generate more chances: home xG is 1.63 versus the visitors’ 0.99 away xG, and more shots (14.71 vs 8.17) and more shots on target (4.14 vs 2.33). Efficiency metrics also favor the hosts — TransINVEST keep a clean sheet in 57% of home matches and fail to score in only 14% of games, whereas Hegelmann record a clean sheet in just 17% of away matches and fail to score in 50% of away outings. Considering the edge in xG, chance volume and the visitors’ significantly worse goals-against average (2.00 away), I assess the probabilities as: home win 65%, draw 20%, away win 15%.

Both teams show a clear BTTS tendency: TransINVEST records 67% of matches with both teams scoring this season and 60% in the last 5, while Hegelmann has 50% seasonally and 80% in the last 5. Defensive metrics confirm a high goal-risk: the home side concedes 1.11 goals on average this season (1.2 in the last 5), and the visitors concede 2.0 on average this season (1.6 in the last 5). xG and shot counts indicate chances will be created: home xG is 1.28 versus the xG allowed by the visitors of 1.56; away xG is 0.99 versus the xG allowed by the hosts of 1.48; the hosts average 3.78 shots on target compared to 2.33 for the visitors. In the last 5 matches TransINVEST scored 8 and conceded 6, and Hegelmann scored 9 and conceded 8, which supports mutual goal exchange. Considering the seasonal 67%/50% and recent 60%/80% BTTS rates and low clean sheet probabilities of 22% and 17%, the most likely outcome is BTTS - Yes — I estimate probability at 72% vs 28% for No.

I expect about 1.40 goals for TransINVEST and 1.05 for Hegelmann, totaling 2.45 expected goals; this is based on seasonal xG 1.28 (home) vs 0.99 (away) and seasonal goals averages 1.22 and 0.83. Hegelmann concedes on average 2.00 goals per match, while TransINVEST averages 10.78 shots with 3.78 on target and an 11% conversion rate, so the hosts have a realistic chance to exploit the opponent’s weak defense. In the last 5 matches xG was 1.54 (TransINVEST) and 1.24 (Hegelmann), totaling 2.78, and both teams scored in those fixtures 60% (home) and 80% (away) of the time, which further suggests an elevated goal count versus the seasonal xG sum of 2.27. Seasonal rates above 1.5 goals are 78% (TransINVEST) and 83% (Hegelmann), so I assess Over 1.5 at 86% probability; Over 2.5 I treat as moderate (55%) due to the seasonal split 33%/67%, and Over 3.5 as unlikely (28%). The strongest signal is Over 1.5 — high seasonal frequency 78–83%, positive xG and the away side’s weak defense (2.00 conceded per match) favor the Over at the 1.5 line.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X). TransINVEST were level at the break in 56% of matches and finish at home drawn in 67% of cases, which strongly favors a tie result. In the first half the home side average 0.78 goals versus the visitors’ 0.33, with xG 1.28 to 0.99, so the shooting advantage is marginal and does not promote a decisive outcome. The second half gives the visitors a slightly better record (average second-half points 1.17 for Hegelmann vs 0.89 for TransINVEST and 33% of second-half wins for the away side vs 11% for the home side); however, the high frequency of draws for the home team (67%) and the large share of half-time draws (56%) suggest the draw will persist to full-time. Therefore X/X receives the highest probability (34%), while 1/1 (22%) and 1/X (18%) are the next realistic scenarios given TransINVEST’s 44% rate of leading at the break.