Troszyn vs Lomza: match statistics

Troszyn have a slightly better recent run: they have collected 5 points from their last five matches, thanks to 1 win and 2 draws, while Łomża have managed just 2 points and failed to win any of those games. However, the hosts remain highly vulnerable defensively, conceding an average of 3.67 goals per home match while allowing opponents 1.86 xG, and they have yet to keep a clean sheet. Łomża have also failed to win away from home and lose 75% of their away matches, although they create slightly better chances in front of goal: their average xG stands at 1.62 compared with Troszyn’s 1.41. The visitors also record 6 shots on target per match, more than the hosts’ 4.33, but their defense allows 3.25 goals per away game. With both defenses looking vulnerable, this match should produce goals, while home advantage and significantly better form over the last five rounds give Troszyn a slight edge.

The case for both teams to score is strengthened by their current form: Troszyn recorded BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches, while Łomża did so in 80%. Both teams scored 7 goals during this period, averaging 1.4 per game, while conceding 1.8 and 2.4 goals respectively. Łomża have yet to keep a clean sheet this season and allow opponents an average of 1.85 xG, giving Troszyn a clear opportunity to improve on their poor seasonal scoring return of 0.33 goals per game. The visitors are considerably more dangerous going forward, averaging 2.0 goals and 6.0 shots on target per match, while Troszyn concede an average of 1.0 goal and face 1.60 xG. Although the hosts have failed to score in 67% of their matches this season, Łomża’s leaky defense and both teams averaging 1.4 goals across their last five outings slightly favor BTTS - Yes.

Łomża plays in very open games: they score an average of 2.00 goals, concede 3.25, and at least one goal was scored in 100% of their matches. Troszyn has a weaker overall attacking record, averaging 0.33 goals, although this improved to 1.40 over their last five matches, while they conceded 1.80 goals per game during that period. The visitors create significantly more quality chances, as confirmed by an average of 1.62 xG and 6.00 shots on target, compared with Troszyn’s 1.13 xG and 1.67 shots on target. Across their last five matches, both teams conceded a combined 21 goals, averaging 4.20 per game, while Łomża saw Over 2.5 goals land in 60% of those fixtures. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the visitors’ defensive profile and the hosts’ recent scoring form should be enough to clear the low two-goal line.

A draw at half-time followed by a Troszyn win is the most likely outcome, as the hosts were level at the break in 2 of their 3 home matches, while Łomża recorded this result in only 1 of their 4 away games. The first half should be evenly contested: Troszyn concede an average of 0.67 goals before the break at home, while Łomża score 1.25 goals away. After the interval, the key factor is the visitors’ defensive weakness: they concede an average of 1.75 goals in second halves away from home and have kept a clean sheet in none of their away matches. Current form also favors the hosts: over their last 5 games, they have scored an average of 1.4 goals and won 20% of their matches, whereas Łomża have failed to win any and conceded an average of 2.4 goals. The X/1 scenario is further supported by Troszyn’s stronger post-break performance, with the hosts averaging 1.6 points per match compared with Łomża’s 0.8 points.