Tukums vs FS Jelgava: match statistics
Tukums vs FS Jelgava: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Tukums played against FS Jelgava in Virsliga (Latvia). The game was played on May 1, 2026. Final score: 5:0.
Recent form
Tukums has 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.60 points per game. FS Jelgava has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, with 0.80 points per game.
Scoring records
Tukums scores 1.33 goals per game and allows 1.78. FS Jelgava scores 0.78 and allows 1.89. Games in this league average 2.78 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 100% of Tukums's games and 44% of FS Jelgava's. The Over 2.5 rates are 67% and 33%, compared with league averages of 60% for BTTS and 49% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
FS Jelgava has the higher season xG average, 1.23 to 1.18 per game. Tukums takes 9.4 shots per game, while FS Jelgava takes 9.7.
First-half and second-half trends
Tukums leads at halftime in 22% of its games and scores 0.67 goals per game after halftime. FS Jelgava leads at halftime in 33% and scores 0.22 after halftime.
When the teams score
Tukums's most productive scoring window is minutes 31-45+ (4 goals). For FS Jelgava, it is minutes 0-15 (2 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Virsliga games average 2.78 goals. Both teams score in 60% of games, and 49% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 5 previous meetings were available. The record was 0 home wins, 3 draws and 2 away wins. Those games averaged 2.40 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I forecast a draw because both teams generate a similar number of expected chances — Tukums averages 1.2 xG at home while FS Jelgava posts 1.38 xG away, indicating balanced goal-scoring potential. Defensively Jelgava has the edge: as visitors they concede only 0.75 goals per game on average and keep clean sheets in 25% of matches, whereas Tukums concedes 1.6 goals at home and has recorded no clean sheets (0%). Offensively the hosts are more efficient — Tukums scores 1.2 goals at home on average, records 4 shots on target per match and has a 13% conversion rate, and they have no goalless home games (0%), while Jelgava scores 0.75 goals away with just a 7% conversion. In the last 5 matches Tukums has scored 8 and conceded 10, yielding 0.6 points per game, while Jelgava has 4 scored and 6 conceded with 0.8 points per game; this shows a slight advantage to the visitors in points but not clear dominance. Considering the high draw rate for the home side (60% draws for Tukums) and 50% draws for Jelgava away, the most likely outcome is a share of points: draw 50%, home win 30%, away win 20%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Tukums concedes an average of 2.8 goals per match this season and has no clean sheets (0% CS); in the last 5 matches they scored 8 and conceded 10 (avg 1.6 scored, 2.0 conceded), with BTTS in those 5 fixtures at 100%. FS Jelgava have a season BTTS of 50% and BTTS of 40% in the last 5 matches; in their last 5 they scored 4 and conceded 6 (avg 0.8 and 1.2), and seasonally they score 0.75 goals per game. Both teams have xG_for above 1.1 (Tukums 1.12, Jelgava 1.38) and xG_against above 1.65 (1.65 and 1.68), indicating both create and allow chances; the league averages 2.78 goals per match and 60% BTTS, which further supports a Goal/Goal scenario. Jelgava averages 11.5 shots (3.0 on target), Tukums 8.2 (2.8 on target), and despite Jelgava's lower conversion (7% vs 10%) the volume of chances favors goals from both sides. For these reasons I pick BTTS - Yes as the strongest signal and estimate probability around 70% for Yes and 30% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Expected xG is 1.12 for Tukums and 1.38 for FS Jelgava, totaling 2.50, which points to a moderate goal count. A Poisson model for total xG=2.50 translates to probabilities of Over 1.5 ≈71%, Over 2.5 ≈46% and Over 3.5 ≈24%. Seasonally Tukums scores 0.8 and concedes 2.8 per match, while in the last 5 fixtures they averaged 1.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded (total 3.6) and 80% of those 5 matches finished Over 2.5. FS Jelgava scores 0.75 and concedes 0.75 on the season, has 0% Over 2.5 matches this season and 25% clean sheets, which reduces the risk of a very high-scoring game. Considering the total xG=2.50, the large disparity in Tukums’ concession averages (2.8 vs 0.75) and the model giving ~76% chance of Under 3.5, the strongest data-driven signal is to play the under at the 3.5 line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I project 2/2 as the strongest scenario (45%) — the visitors lead at the break in 50% of matches and have a 100% rate of clean sheets at half-time, while the hosts are behind at half-time in 60% of their games. The visitors generate more chances: average xG for the visitors is 1.38 versus 1.12 for the hosts, and average shots are 11.5 versus 8.2, which increases the likelihood of maintaining the lead. The hosts concede an average of 2.8 goals per match and allow an average of 1.2 goals in the first half, which weakens their prospects for the final result. Therefore, visitor-win variants (2/2 45% and X/2 20%) total 65% probability, whereas home-win scenarios are marginal (total 6%) due to no wins in the last five home matches and a lower average points per game: 0.6 for the hosts versus 1.25 for the visitors.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Tukums | FS Jelgava | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
FS Jelgava is 33% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / game - Tukums · 0.8 pts / game - FS Jelgava
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tukums is 71% better for: goals scored per game.
1.33 goals / game - Tukums · 0.78 goals / game - FS Jelgava
Tukums is 6% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.78 goals / game - Tukums · 1.89 goals / game - FS Jelgava
Tukums scores in 100% of games (9 of 9 meczów), while FS Jelgava keeps a clean sheet in 11% (1 of 9 meczów).
FS Jelgava scores in 56% of games (5 of 9 meczów), while Tukums keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 9 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tukums
Over / Under - FS Jelgava
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
FS Jelgava is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / game - Tukums · 1.33 pts / game - FS Jelgava
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tukums - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 22% of games and wins 0%. Sometimes gives up a halftime lead.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
FS Jelgava - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 33% of games and wins 22%. Sometimes gives up a halftime lead.
Allows 0.5 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -3 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (2 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Tukums
FS Jelgava
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| Tukums | Liga | FS Jelgava | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 3.11 | 2.78 | ▼ 2.67 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 100% | 60% | ▼ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 49% | ▼ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 20% | ▼ 11% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 89% | 76% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 78% | 84% | ▼ 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Tukums's perspective: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses against FS Jelgava. Games average 2.40 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Tukums vs FS Jelgava?
The Virsliga match finished Tukums 5:0 FS Jelgava. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Tukums and FS Jelgava?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Tukums won 0, FS Jelgava won 2 and 3 ended level. These games averaged 2.40 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Tukums vs FS Jelgava?
Tukums score 1.33 goals per game on average and FS Jelgava 0.78. The Virsliga average is 2.78 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 100% of Tukums's matches and 44% of FS Jelgava's.
What form are Tukums and FS Jelgava in?
Over the last 5 games Tukums have a 0-3-2 record (0.60 points per game) and FS Jelgava 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tukums vs FS Jelgava?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.