Tulsa Roughnecks vs Monterey Bay: match statistics

Tulsa Roughnecks possess a clear defensive advantage: at home they concede on average 0.8 goals per game and keep 40% clean sheets, while Monterey Bay concede 2.4 goals on average away and have not recorded any away wins (0% wins, 80% losses). In attack Tulsa score 1.2 goals per home game, have xG 1.26, conversion around 11% and register 3.2 shots on target, whereas Monterey Bay away average 0.8 goals, xG 1.04, 10% conversion and only 1.8 shots on target. Although Monterey Bay scored 12 goals in the last 5 matches (2.4 per game) and averaged 2.0 points per game in that period, their away form is poor (dllll) and despite a low share of goalless away games (20%) they concede many goals, which translates into defeats. Tulsa also have a positive home goal difference (+2), 40% share of home wins and average xG against of 1.24, indicating their strong results are built on effective defense and moderate-quality attacking chances. Based on this, I predict a home win, as their defensive superiority (0.8 vs 2.4 goals conceded) and better chance creation (3.2 vs 1.8 shots on target) should outweigh Monterey Bay’s periodic finishing.

I back BTTS - Yes. Monterey Bay has a seasonlong BTTS rate of 80% (80% in the last 5), while Tulsa sits at 43% for the season and 40% in the last 5, giving a strong signal from the away side. Monterey concedes 2.4 goals per game on average this season, Tulsa scores 1.29; additionally home xG is 1.33 versus away xG conceded of 1.91, so Tulsa can realistically create chances and Monterey is vulnerable to conceding. In the last 5 matches the visitors scored 12 goals (2.4 avg) with an attacking xG of 1.42, and the hosts conceded on average 1.4 goals across their last five, which increases the probability of both teams scoring. Furthermore Tulsa averages 4.0 shots on target per match versus Monterey’s 1.8, and the hosts have only a 29% clean sheet rate this season compared to 0% clean sheets for the visitors, making a Goal/Goal scenario more likely; I rate BTTS at 70% vs 30% and tip Yes.

A model combining attack xG and opponent xG indicates expected goals: Tulsa 1.62 (attack xG 1.33 vs opponent xG Monterey Bay 1.91) and Monterey Bay 1.12 (attack xG 1.04 vs opponent xG Tulsa 1.19), totalling 2.74 goals. Season figures confirm a propensity for goals — Tulsa has 71% of matches over 1.5 goals, Monterey Bay 80%, and matches over 2.5 goals occur in 57% and 60% respectively. In the last 5 games Monterey Bay scored 12 goals (2.4 average) and BTTS occurred in 80% of matches, while Tulsa in their last 5 have 5 goals scored (1.0 average) and average 10.71 shots with 4.0 on target per match. Using a Poisson distribution with a total of 2.74 I estimate about a 76% chance for Over 1.5, about 52% for Over 2.5 and about 29% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest signal from the data is a play on Over 1.5.

Tulsa holds a clear advantage on key metrics: xG 1.33 versus Monterey 1.04, 4.0 shots on target per match compared to 1.8, and a season points average of 1.43 versus 0.2 for the visitors, with Monterey having no wins (winPercentage_away 0.0). At half-time the home side led in 3 of 7 matches (43%) and score an average of 0.57 HT goals, while the visitors have 0.0 HT goals and concede an average of 1.0 goal before the break, which strongly favors Tulsa at half-time. The second half often produces goals (over 0.5 in the 2nd half: 86% for hosts and 100% for guests), but Monterey’s weak defense (an average of 2.4 goals conceded per match) makes it more likely that Tulsa will maintain or extend the lead than that a turnaround will occur. Consequently the strongest signal is a home lead at half-time and a win after 90 minutes, hence the 1/1 HT/FT selection as the most probable.