UCV Moquegua vs FC Cajamarca: match statistics

I back the home win (1). UCV Moquegua scores an average of 1.8 goals per home match and has a 60% home win rate; in the last 5 home games the hosts scored 7 goals and average 1.2 points per match. FC Cajamarca scores only 0.5 goals on the road on average, has 0% away wins and 0% clean sheets away, and in their last 5 away matches collected just 0.2 points per game while conceding 11 goals. The hosts create more quality chances: 9.6 average shots and 3.2 on target per match with a 19% conversion rate, versus the visitors’ 7.33 shots, 2.17 on target and 7% conversion, with xG 1.08 for the hosts against 0.83 for the visitors. Additionally, UCV concedes 1.2 goals at home (xG conceded 1.4) versus Cajamarca’s 1.83 conceded away (xG conceded 1.67), therefore I assess the probabilities as 65% for the home win, 20% for a draw and 15% for the away win.

UCV Moquegua has BTTS in 80% of home matches, while FC Cajamarca records a seasonal BTTS rate of only 17%; however, in the last 5 fixtures the hosts show 60% and the away side 40% BTTS. Hosts score an average of 1.8 goals per match versus 0.5 for the visitors, while both teams concede around 1.8 goals per match (1.8 and 1.83), which favors goal exchanges. Home xG is 1.12 versus 0.83 for the visitors, and in the last 5 matches the away xG is 0.88, meaning FC Cajamarca has a statistical chance of at least one goal despite a low seasonal average. Additionally, UCV registers on average 3.8 shots on target and 18% conversion, while Cajamarca averages 2.17 shots on target and 7% conversion, indicating the visitors can still generate chances. Considering the hosts' 80% BTTS, the league BTTS level of 56% and the last 5 matches (hosts 7 scored and 8 conceded, visitors 5 scored and 11 conceded), a BTTS - Yes scenario appears more likely.

Based on comparing the home xG (1.12) vs away xG conceded (1.67) and the away xG (0.83) vs home xG conceded (1.51), I estimate 1.40 goals for UCV Moquegua and 1.17 for FC Cajamarca, total 2.57 goals. Seasonal averages confirm home advantage: UCV scores 1.8 goals on average with xG 1.12, while FC Cajamarca scores only 0.5 with xG 0.83, indicating superior home attacking quality. UCV averages 10.2 shots (3.8 on target) with an 18% conversion rate, whereas the visitors average 7.33 shots (2.17 on target) with a 7% conversion, so chance creation and finishing favor the hosts. Additionally, the hosts have 80% of matches over 1.5 goals this season and 60% over 2.5, and in the last 5 matches UCV recorded 100% of games over 2.5, which strengthens the over signal. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (approx. 73% probability), therefore I recommend playing Over at the 1.5 line; Over 2.5 (48%) is plausible, while Over 3.5 (26%) has low probability.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1). A half-time draw is plausible because UCV were level at the break in 40% of their home matches, while FC Cajamarca drew at half-time in 33% of their away games (averaging ~36–40%). After the break the hosts have a clear advantage: UCV score an average of 1.4 goals in the second half and in 80% of home fixtures there is at least one goal after the break, whereas Cajamarca score only 0.33 goals in that period. Additionally, UCV average 10.2 shots and 3.8 on target with an 18% conversion rate and xG 1.12, versus 7.33 shots, 2.17 on target, 7% conversion and xG 0.83 for the visitors; the away side also have a 0% away-win rate and average 0.5 goals per away match, so a turnaround is unlikely. For these reasons X/1 is the strongest signal, with alternatives being 1/1 (retaining the lead at HT) or 2/1 (home comeback after the break), which carry smaller but notable probabilities.