UCV Moquegua vs Sport Boys: match statistics

UCV Moquegua have a clearly more favorable profile at home: they win 40% of their home matches, score an average of 1.5 goals and concede just 1.1, while Sport Boys lose as many as 70% of their away fixtures. The hosts also create slightly better chances, as reflected by an average xG of 1.24 compared with the visitors’ 1.22, while their opponents allow chances worth an average of 1.54 xG. Sport Boys do arrive on the back of a strong run, with 3 wins, a draw and a defeat in their last 5 matches, conceding only 2 goals, but their away attack scores just 0.7 goals per game and fails to find the net in 50% of such fixtures. UCV Moquegua are winless in their last five matches overall, but home advantage, a more effective attack and Sport Boys’ poor away form all point to a narrow home win.

The signal for BTTS - No is clear, as the seasonal rate of matches in which both teams scored is only 36% for UCV Moquegua and 30% for Sport Boys, compared with the league average of 56%. In their last five matches, both sides recorded BTTS in just 20% of games, while the hosts scored only 2 goals during this period, averaging 0.4 per match. Sport Boys are currently very solid defensively, conceding 2 goals in their last five appearances, an average of 0.4 goals per game, which limits the chances of the low-scoring hosts. UCV Moquegua kept a clean sheet in 64% of their matches this season and concede an average of 0.55 goals at home, while Sport Boys failed to score in 50% of their games. Although the visitors’ xG over their last five matches stands at 1.23, the combination of their inconsistent finishing and the hosts’ strong defense lends greater support to a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

Seasonal data clearly points to a low-scoring game: UCV Moquegua have recorded under 3.5 goals in 91% of their matches, compared with 70% for Sport Boys. The hosts concede just 0.55 goals per game at home and keep a clean sheet in 64% of their appearances, while the visitors average only 0.70 goals scored. Recent form also supports a cautious outlook, as Sport Boys have conceded just 2 goals in their last five matches, while both teams have seen both sides score in only 20% of their games. UCV Moquegua have recently scored just 0.4 goals per game, limiting the risk of a high-scoring result despite the visitors’ weaker season-long defensive record. Therefore, Under 3.5 goals has the strongest statistical support, with the expected total of 1.75 goals remaining clearly below the line.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Sport Boys win at full-time, as both teams often start cautiously: UCV Moquegua were level at the break in 64% of their matches, while Sport Boys did so in 60% of their last five. The hosts score just 0.27 goals per match before half-time and kept a clean sheet in the first half in 82% of their appearances, clearly supporting a low-scoring opening period. However, current form is decisive: Sport Boys have averaged 2.0 points per match over their last five league games and won 60% of them, while UCV have failed to win any and scored just 0.4 goals per match. The visitors have also improved after the interval, averaging 0.6 goals in the second half recently, whereas the hosts have not scored after half-time during this period and conceded 0.6 goals.