Ulsan vs Incheon United: match statistics

Ulsan sit higher in the table, occupying 3rd place compared with Incheon United’s 8th, and average 1.77 goals per home match with an xG of 1.86. The hosts create significantly more chances, averaging 15.92 shots and 5.46 shots on target, while Incheon record 10.23 and 3.62 respectively away from home. However, Incheon are better organized defensively, conceding 1.15 goals per away match and keeping a clean sheet in 31% of their games, compared with Ulsan’s 1.69 goals conceded at home. Neither team’s current form is particularly convincing, but Ulsan have scored 6 goals in their last five matches, while the visitors have managed just 4. Combined with home advantage, this slightly shifts the odds in favor of the hosts. A draw remains a realistic outcome, as Incheon have drawn 31% of their away matches, but Ulsan’s higher volume of chances points to a narrow home win.

Both teams recorded BTTS in 54% of their league matches, while over the last five games this rate increased to 60% for each side, providing a moderately positive signal for BTTS - Yes. Ulsan average 1.08 goals scored, while Incheon concede 1.15 goals per match; meanwhile, the visitors score 1.38 goals and the hosts concede 1.08. Their attacking potential is supported by xG: 1.47 for Ulsan and 1.35 for Incheon, with both defenses allowing an identical average xG of 1.30. Recent form has not been outstanding, as Incheon have scored only 4 goals in their last five matches, while Ulsan have conceded 7 goals and allowed as much as 1.79 xG per game during this period. The risk is increased by 23% of matches without a goal scored by either team and Incheon's 31% clean-sheet rate. However, the overall goal data and current BTTS trend support a scenario in which both teams score.

The strongest signal is on the Under 3.5 goals line: 85% of Ulsan’s matches and 77% of Incheon’s games ended with a maximum of three goals. Ulsan score an average of 1.08 goals per match, while Incheon concede just 1.15; meanwhile, the visitors score 1.38 goals and the hosts concede 1.08, pointing more towards a balanced result than a high-scoring game. Both teams exceeded the 2.5-goal line in only 38% and 54% of their matches, respectively, while Incheon have scored just 4 goals in their last five games. Creative potential remains moderate, as the combined xG-based projection stands at around 2.40 goals, and the hosts convert only 9% of their shots. Therefore, I rate a scenario with four or more goals as clearly less likely than a result featuring no more than three goals.

A draw at half-time is best supported by the data: Incheon were level after 45 minutes in 10 of 13 matches, or 77% of the time, compared with 38% for Ulsan. Recent form further reinforces expectations of a cautious opening, as neither team held a lead at the break in any of their previous five matches, while Incheon averaged just 0.2 goals in those first halves. A level score at the final whistle is supported by the identical average xG conceded by both teams, at 1.30, as well as their similar post-half-time scoring records: Ulsan average 0.62 goals after the break, compared with 0.54 for Incheon. The visitors have been slightly more effective over the entire season, winning 38% of their matches compared with Ulsan’s 31%, which is why the draw at half-time/Incheon win scenario remains very close to the main outcome. However, draw/draw is the most likely HT/FT result, as Incheon finished 31% of matches level, while both teams recorded draws in 40% or more of their last five appearances.