Union Saint-Gilloise vs RSC Anderlecht: match statistics

RSC Anderlecht come into this fixture in significantly better current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 9 goals in that run, while Union Saint-Gilloise have recorded just 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat. The visitors are also creating considerably more chances away from home, averaging 16 shots and 6 shots on target per match, compared with the hosts’ 9 shots and 3 on target. Anderlecht’s advantage in chance quality is significant, with an average xG of 2.01, while Union generate 1.16 xG and allow opponents 1.26 xG. The hosts average 68% possession at home and have yet to concede there, but across their last five matches they have allowed opponents to score 8 goals. Although neither team has scored in their only home and away league match respectively, the current trend and the visitors’ attacking intensity point towards an Anderlecht victory.

Union Saint-Gilloise recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.2 goals but conceding as many as 1.6. Anderlecht have a lower BTTS rate from their last five appearances, at 40%, but averaged 1.8 goals and produced 1.80 xG in those games. The hosts are very strong in chance creation, with their seasonal average xG standing at 3.34, while their opponents have failed to keep a clean sheet in any match so far. At the same time, Union’s defense has recently allowed 1.58 xG per game, which, combined with Anderlecht’s average of six shots on target per match, gives the visitors a realistic route to scoring. The balance of signals favors BTTS - Yes, although Anderlecht’s more solid defensive record over their last five games, with an average of 0.8 goals conceded, reduces confidence in this market.

Union’s last five matches produced an average of 3.8 goals, with the team scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.6 per game. Over the same period, Anderlecht scored 1.8 goals per match, while their games averaged 2.6 goals. The attacking potential of both sides is supported by xG: Union averaged 1.57 xG and Anderlecht 1.80, while the hosts allowed opponents 1.58 xG. The Over 2.5 goals line landed in 60% of the last five matches for each team, while the league-wide average stands at a high 3.29 goals. However, the strongest pick remains Over 1.5 goals, as the projected 2.95 goals and the attacking numbers of both teams significantly reduce the risk of a very tight match.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Union Saint-Gilloise win at full-time, as the hosts were level at the break in 100% of their last five matches and subsequently scored an average of 1.6 goals after half-time. Union create a very high number of chances at home: their average xG stands at 3.34 compared with Anderlecht’s 2.01, while the hosts record 32 shots per match against 16 for the visitors. Anderlecht, however, are in better current results-based form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches, and average 1.0 first-half goals compared with Union’s 0.6, meaning scenarios with the visitors leading or the score level at half-time retain a significant share. After the interval, the hosts’ advantage should increase: Union have averaged 1.6 goals across their last five second halves, while Anderlecht have managed only 0.8. The complete season data are based on a very small sample, but they also indicate that Union won their only home match 3-1, while Anderlecht lost their only away match 0-1.