Universitario de Vinto vs Real Tomayapo: match statistics

Both teams are in poor current form, having collected just 1 point each from their last 5 matches. However, Real Tomayapo have lost every away game this season. Universitario de Vinto average 1.71 goals and generate 2.20 xG at home, while the visitors score only 0.57 goals away from home with 0.83 xG. The hosts also hold a clear advantage in possession and chance creation, recording 59% possession, 20.86 shots and 6.86 shots on target per match, compared with Real Tomayapo’s 37%, 7.43 shots and 2.57 shots on target. Universitario’s defense is not entirely reliable, as they concede an average of 1.71 goals at home and have failed to keep a clean sheet. However, Real Tomayapo allow opponents 3.43 goals and 2.05 xG per away match. Although the hosts have scored just 2 goals in their last five matches, the scale of the visitors’ problems away from home points to a Universitario de Vinto win.

A scenario in which both sides fail to score is slightly more likely, primarily due to Real Tomayapo’s very poor finishing: the visitors score just 0.57 goals per match on average and failed to find the net in 57% of their league fixtures. Their last five matches also produced only 3 goals, or 0.6 per game, despite an average xG of 1.15 during that period. Universitario de Vinto should have good opportunities to score, as Tomayapo concede an average of 3.43 goals away from home, while their average xG against stands at 2.05. However, the hosts are also inconsistent in attack, averaging 0.86 goals per game this season and just 0.4 goals across their last five appearances. The teams’ BTTS - Yes rates are 57% and 43%, respectively, clearly below the league average of 64%. Therefore, the most likely outcome appears to be a match in which only one team scores, most likely the hosts. This supports the BTTS - No selection, meaning that at least one team will fail to score—not necessarily a 0:0 draw or a match in which neither side scores.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as at least 2 goals were scored in 71% of the hosts’ matches and as many as 86% of Real Tomayapo’s games. Tomayapo concede an average of 3.43 goals per match, have kept no clean sheets, and their average xG against is a high 2.05, which clearly favors goals for Universitario de Vinto. The hosts create an average of 1.31 xG and register 3.71 shots on target per match, while the visitors allow opponents a high number of chances. Both teams have conceded heavily in their last 5 matches, averaging 2.8 and 2.2 goals per game respectively, although their own attacking output has been limited to 0.4 and 0.6 goals. This increases the chances of a result with at least two goals, but the weaker offensive production of both sides reduces confidence in Over 2.5 goals.

The strongest case is for a draw at half-time followed by a Universitario de Vinto win: the hosts were level at the break in 86% of their matches, scoring just 0.14 goals in the first half. Real Tomayapo were trailing at half-time in 86% of games and conceded an average of 1.57 goals before the break, but the hosts’ low scoring efficiency increases the likelihood that this advantage will not immediately be reflected on the scoreboard. After the interval, the visitors look particularly vulnerable defensively, conceding an average of 1.86 goals, while Universitario score 0.71 in this period and have averaged 1.57 points per match in the second half. The hosts’ superiority is also evident across the season: they have an xG of 1.31 compared with their opponents’ 0.83, average 11.86 shots per match against Tomayapo’s 7.43, while the visitors have lost every match so far and concede an average of 3.43 goals.