Urawa Reds vs Yokohama F. Marinos: match statistics

Yokohama F. Marinos sit 5th, while Urawa Reds are languishing in 19th, with the difference further underlined by their current form: the visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 9 goals in the process, whereas the hosts have failed to win any and conceded as many as 14 goals. Urawa have lost every home match so far, conceding an average of 4 goals per game and keeping no clean sheets. Marinos have a perfect away record and are yet to concede, while also averaging 61% possession compared to Urawa’s 48%. The visitors’ superiority is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average xG stands at 1,30, whereas Urawa generate just 0,52 xG while allowing a very high 2,72 xG defensively. Everything points to a clear Yokohama advantage, although Urawa’s scoring rate of 1 goal at home leaves a slim chance of the hosts finding the net.

Urawa Reds recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches and conceded a very high 2.8 goals per game over that period, which clearly favors Yokohama F. Marinos finding the net. The visitors have recently averaged 1.8 goals and 3.0 shots on target per match, while Urawa’s defense allowed opponents an xG of 2.03. However, the hosts are not without arguments: their recent xG stands at 1.52, while Yokohama allowed opponents an xG of 1.45, so the chance of breaking through their defense is real. The visitors’ season-long clean-sheet record and their 0% BTTS are cautionary signals, but Urawa’s short-term defensive weakness and the attacking numbers of both teams give a slight edge to the scenario of both sides scoring. This supports BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal, rather than BTTS - No, which means that at least one team fails to score—not necessarily a 0:0 draw or a match in which neither team scores.

Urawa conceded an average of as many as 2.8 goals in their last five matches, while Yokohama F. Marinos scored 1.8 goals per game over the same period, clearly supporting the prospect of goals for the visitors. The hosts have recently created chances worth 1.52 xG, while Marinos’ defense allowed opponents 1.45 xG, meaning Urawa should also have a realistic chance of scoring. The combined expected-goals profile stands at 3.00, close to the league average of 3.2 goals, and 60% of Urawa’s last matches went over the 2.5-goal line. Although Marinos have conceded an average of 0.0 goals away from home so far, this is a signal based on a very small sample and carries less weight than Urawa’s current form, which has seen opponents score 14 goals in five appearances. The safest option is Over 1.5 goals, as just two goals are needed for the bet to land, while the data for both teams points to a high probability of an open game.

Yokohama F. Marinos have been clearly superior in their last five matches: they have averaged 2.0 points per game, won 60% of their matches, and conceded only 1.0 goal per game on average, while Urawa have failed to win any of their matches, lost 80% of them, and conceded 2.8 goals per game. The visitors’ advantage is already evident before half-time, as they held a lead at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while the hosts were also behind at half-time in 3 of their 5 appearances during the same period. Urawa conceded an average of 1.2 goals before the break, whereas Yokohama conceded just 0.2, further supporting the scenario of an early lead for the visitors. After the interval, the hosts still look defensively vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.6 goals, while the visitors score an average of 1.0 goal in this period and remain unbeaten in their current away statistics. Therefore, the most likely outcome is an HT/FT 2/2, with Yokohama taking the lead at half-time and holding on to it until the end of the match.