USMNT vs Paraguay: match statistics
USMNT vs Paraguay: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
USMNT play Paraguay in World Cup (International). The match date is 13 June 2026 at 03:00. Final score: 4:1.
Current form
USMNT: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Paraguay: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
USMNT scores 2.20 and concedes 1.60 goals per match. Paraguay scores 0.60 and concedes 1.20. League average: 2.91 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: USMNT 60%, Paraguay 40%. Over 2.5: USMNT 60%, Paraguay 20%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 56%.
xG, shots and style
USMNT has higher xG: 1.43 vs 0.74. USMNT: 11.8 shots per match, Paraguay: 7.0.
Match halves
USMNT: half-time lead 60%, second-half goals 0.60. Paraguay: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 0.20.
Goals by minute
USMNT: 31-45+ (5 goals). Paraguay: 0-15 (1 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
World Cup: 2.91 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 56%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Match description
USMNT receives a significant home advantage and has better squad depth than Paraguay. Paraguay is uncomfortable, aggressive in duels and can slow the tempo, but our model shows a clearer edge for USMNT than the odds imply. Our probability distribution is USMNT 61%, draw 23% and Paraguay 16%. At odds of 2.00 the model sees EV of about +22.0%, so the price offers a real edge over our valuation. The risk is a nervous tournament start and that Paraguay performs well in matches where they do not have to dictate play. Status: BET.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| USMNT | Paraguay | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 23% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.58 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
USMNT is 80% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - USMNT · 1 pts / match - Paraguay
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
USMNT is 267% better for: goals scored per match.
2.2 goals / match - USMNT · 0.6 goals / match - Paraguay
Paraguay is 33% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.6 goals / match - USMNT · 1.2 goals / match - Paraguay
USMNT scores in 100% of matches (5 of 5 matches), while Paraguay keeps a clean sheet in 40% (2 of 5 matches).
Paraguay scores in 60% of matches (3 of 5 matches), while USMNT keeps a clean sheet in 40% (2 of 5 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — USMNT
Over / Under — Paraguay
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
USMNT is 13% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.8 pts / match - USMNT · 1.6 pts / match - Paraguay
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
USMNT - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 60% of matches and wins 60%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Paraguay - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 20%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 0% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goli). Concedes most in 0-15 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (1 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
USMNT
Paraguay
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (World Cup).
Teams vs league
| USMNT | Liga | Paraguay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.80 | 2.91 | ▼ 1.80 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 60% | 55% | ▼ 40% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 60% | 56% | ▼ 20% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 40% | 26% | ▲ 40% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 70% | ▼ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | • 80% | 81% | ▼ 60% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
FAQ
What was the result of USMNT vs Paraguay?
The World Cup match finished USMNT 4:1 Paraguay. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before USMNT vs Paraguay?
USMNT score 2.20 goals per game on average and Paraguay 0.60. The World Cup average is 2.91 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 60% of USMNT's matches and 40% of Paraguay's.
What form are USMNT and Paraguay in?
Over the last 5 games USMNT have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Paraguay 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for USMNT vs Paraguay?
The statistical background for USMNT vs Paraguay — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.