UTA Arad vs SSC Farul: match statistics

UTA Arad is the clear favorite based on home metrics: at home they average 1.72 goals per match, have a 50% win rate and a +5 goal difference, whereas SSC Farul average just 0.82 goals away and carry a -8 away goal difference. UTA registers 4.61 shots on target per game with a 12% conversion rate and xG 1.59, while Farul posts 3.76 shots on target, 6% conversion and xG 1.44 — this underlines the hosts’ markedly higher efficiency in chance conversion. In the last 5 matches the hosts have scored 11 goals and recorded 3 wins (PPG 1.8), whereas Farul have 5 goals, one win and PPG 0.8, indicating superior form for UTA. Defensively both teams concede at similar rates (UTA 1.44 goals at home vs Farul 1.29 away), but Farul fail to score in 35% of away matches compared to 22% of UTA’s home matches without a goal, which increases the hosts’ chances.

I tip BTTS - Yes at 62% probability because UTA Arad has a season BTTS rate of 67% (60% in last 5) and SSC Farul 53% (40% in last 5), which strongly favors both teams scoring. UTA averages 1.67 goals per game seasonally and 2.2 in the last 5 (11 goals), while Farul has 0.82 seasonally and 1.0 in the last 5 (5 goals); nevertheless Farul concedes 1.29 goals per game on average and has only 12% clean sheets, so they are highly likely to concede. xG indicates both teams create and allow around 1.5 xG (UTA xG_for 1.57 vs Farul 1.44; xG_against 1.57 and 1.59), suggesting an open match with chances for both sides. UTA attempts more shots and shots on target (14.56 and 4.28 vs 13.29 and 3.76) and has a higher conversion rate (11% vs 6%), increasing the likelihood they will finish chances created. Considering seasonal BTTS 67%/53%, low clean sheet rates (22%/12%) and a league goals average of 2.56, I pick Yes as the stronger signal (62% vs 38%).

Total expected goals (xG) are 3.09: UTA Arad 1.58 xG and SSC Farul 1.51 xG, indicating significant scoring potential. Seasonally UTA averages 1.67 goals (56% of matches Over 2.5), while Farul averages 0.82 goals (35% Over 2.5); both teams also have a very high share of matches with over 0.5 goals — 94% for UTA and 100% for Farul. Both sides concede goals (UTA 1.17, Farul 1.29 per match) and BTTS rates are 67% for UTA and 53% for Farul, which increases the likelihood of additional goals. In the last 5 matches UTA scored 11 goals (2.2 avg) and had 60% Over 2.5, whereas Farul scored 5 goals (1.0 avg) and 20% Over 2.5; however the combined xG=3.09 leads me to rate Over 2.5 as a realistic option (approx. 62%). The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (estimated 86%), therefore I recommend backing Over, with the 1.5 line as the safest choice.

UTA Arad is a clear favorite to lead at the break — the hosts were leading at half-time in 56% of matches, while SSC Farul led in only 12%, and the average goals by half are 1.06 for UTA versus 0.29 for the visitors. Over the full match UTA scores an average of 1.67 goals and has a 44% win rate, compared to 0.82 and 18% for Farul; the hosts also have better shot efficiency (11% vs 6%), which increases the likelihood of maintaining the lead. The second half does not tend to produce many turnarounds — the hosts score an average of 0.61 goals after the break and the visitors 0.53, with visitors being behind at half-time in 47% of matches, so comebacks are unlikely. Based on this, I assign the highest probability to the 1/1 scenario (38%), with X/1 (13%) and X/X (10%) as the second and third most likely outcomes.