Vaprus vs Nõmme Kalju: match statistics
Vaprus vs Nõmme Kalju: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Vaprus play Nõmme Kalju in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match date is 30 May 2026 at 13:30. Venue: Pärnu Rannastaadion. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Vaprus: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Nõmme Kalju: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Vaprus scores 1.40 and concedes 1.90 goals per match. Nõmme Kalju scores 1.65 and concedes 0.80. League average: 3.11 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Vaprus 65%, Nõmme Kalju 50%. Over 2.5: Vaprus 65%, Nõmme Kalju 40%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 66%.
xG, shots and style
Nõmme Kalju has higher xG: 1.79 vs 1.14. Vaprus: 8.4 shots per match, Nõmme Kalju: 15.0.
Match halves
Vaprus: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.65. Nõmme Kalju: half-time lead 45%, second-half goals 0.90.
Goals by minute
Vaprus: 16-30 (6 goals). Nõmme Kalju: 61-75 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Meistriliiga: 3.11 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 66%.
Head-to-head
5 H2H matches: 2-1-2. Average goals 2.80, BTTS 60%.
Match description
The favorite in this fixture is Nõmme Kalju: the visitors sit 2nd in the table with 9 wins this season versus Vaprus’s 5 wins, and the goal difference is 25 scored and 7 conceded compared to 16 scored and 28 conceded for the hosts. The visitors’ defensive edge is pronounced — Vaprus concedes on average 2.17 goals per home match, while Nõmme Kalju allows just 0.17 goals away and has 83% clean sheets versus 33% for Vaprus. In attack Kalju also holds the advantage: away xG is 1.78 versus the hosts’ 1.33 xG, the visitors average 14.83 shots and 4.33 on target per game vs 10.17 and 3.83 for Vaprus, translating to 1.5 goals per game for Kalju vs 1.33 for Vaprus. The last 5 matches confirm the visitors’ form — Kalju have scored 8 goals and have PPG 1.8 (3 wins), Vaprus 7 goals and PPG 1.2 (2 wins), and the hosts fail to score in 33% of home games versus 17% for the visitors. Given the gap in defensive solidity, shot volume and goal difference (+8 GD away for Kalju vs −5 GD for Vaprus at home), I predict a Nõmme Kalju win, although a draw remains possible given the visitors’ low finishing efficiency.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Vaprus | Nõmme Kalju | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nõmme Kalju is 18% better for: goals scored per match.
1.4 goals / match - Vaprus · 1.65 goals / match - Nõmme Kalju
Nõmme Kalju is 137% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.9 goals / match - Vaprus · 0.8 goals / match - Nõmme Kalju
Vaprus scores in 80% of matches (16 of 20 matches), while Nõmme Kalju keeps a clean sheet in 40% (8 of 20 matches).
Nõmme Kalju scores in 85% of matches (17 of 20 matches), while Vaprus keeps a clean sheet in 25% (5 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Vaprus
Over / Under — Nõmme Kalju
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nõmme Kalju is 40% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.25 pts / match - Vaprus · 1.75 pts / match - Nõmme Kalju
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Vaprus - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Nõmme Kalju - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 45% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (6 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (9 goli). Concedes most in 16-30 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Vaprus
Nõmme Kalju
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Vaprus | Liga | Nõmme Kalju | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.30 | 3.11 | ▼ 2.45 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 65% | 58% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 65% | 66% | ▼ 40% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 25% | 23% | ▲ 40% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 70% | 74% | ▼ 65% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 85% | 88% | ▼ 80% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Vaprus 2 - 1 - 2 Nõmme Kalju. Average goals 2.80, both teams scored in 60% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Vaprus vs Nõmme Kalju?
The Meistriliiga match finished Vaprus 3:1 Nõmme Kalju. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Vaprus and Nõmme Kalju?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Vaprus won 2, Nõmme Kalju won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.80 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Vaprus vs Nõmme Kalju?
Vaprus score 1.40 goals per game on average and Nõmme Kalju 1.65. The Meistriliiga average is 3.11 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 66% of games. Both teams score in 65% of Vaprus's matches and 50% of Nõmme Kalju's.
What form are Vaprus and Nõmme Kalju in?
Over the last 5 games Vaprus have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Nõmme Kalju 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Vaprus vs Nõmme Kalju?
The statistical background for Vaprus vs Nõmme Kalju — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.