Vaprus vs Tallinna FC Levadia: match statistics

Tallinna FC Levadia is the clear favorite: they have a record of 9 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses this season with a goal difference of 32-9, while Vaprus have 5 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses with a 15-22 record. The form gap is evident over the last 5 matches — Levadia have won all 5 and scored 17 goals (avg. 3.4 per game), whereas Vaprus have 3 wins, 2 losses and 8 goals (1.6 per game). In chance-creation metrics Levadia average 22.2 shots and 7.4 on target away, with xG 2.59 and 60% possession, while Vaprus at home average 10.2 shots, 4 on target, xG 1.38 and 48% possession — a significant advantage in quantity and quality of chances for the visitors. Defensively Vaprus concede 1.4 goals at home on average (22 conceded overall), and Levadia concede 1.0 away (9 overall); additionally Vaprus fail to score in 40% of home matches, while Levadia have 0% of away matches without a goal, which increases the likelihood of a away win. Considering the xG advantage, shot volume and current 5-win streak, I tip Tallinna FC Levadia to win; I estimate probabilities as 12% for Vaprus, 16% for a draw and 72% for an away victory.

I back BTTS - Yes — the key signal is Tallinna FC Levadia, which has a seasonal BTTS of 100% versus Vaprus’s 43% at home. The visitors generate an average xG of 2.59 away, while xG against Vaprus is 0.98, indicating Levadia creates substantially more expected chances than the home defense typically concedes. Vaprus can also score at home: they average 3.0 goals per match and xG 2.05, while Levadia concedes around 1.0 goal away seasonally (xG against 0.99), so the hosts have real goal potential. The last 5 matches for both teams show BTTS at 60% and 60%, the league averages 3.14 goals per match and 52% BTTS, and over 2.5 is 71% for Vaprus and 80% for Levadia, which further supports both teams scoring. At the same time, Vaprus’s 57% clean sheets at home limit certainty, so I assign the “Yes” scenario a 70% probability rather than a higher stake.

Both teams have 100% of matches this season with at least 2 goals (Vaprus 100% and Levadia 100%), which strongly supports Over 1.5; therefore I assess the probability of Over 1.5 at 98%. An xG-based model gives expected 1.52 goals for Vaprus (attacking xG 2.05 vs conceded by Levadia 0.99) and 1.79 goals for Levadia (attacking xG 2.59 vs conceded by Vaprus 0.98), total ~3.31 goals. Season rates above 2.5 are 71% for Vaprus and 80% for Levadia (average ~75%), and in the last 5 matches Levadia has 100% Over 2.5, so I estimate Over 2.5 at about 75%. Over 3.5 is much less certain: seasonally 43% and 40% and the 3.31 forecast suggests lower chances for 4+ goals, therefore I give Over 3.5 around 39% (Under 61%). Based on this, the best and strongest market to play is Over 1.5 due to both teams’ historical 100% and the forecasted 3.31 goals.

Vaprus is very strong in the first half: they led at the break in 5 matches (71%), score an average of 1.57 goals in the first half and concede only 0.14, and keep a first-half clean sheet in 86% of games. Tallinna FC Levadia, however, possess greater offensive strength and superior full‑match form — Levadia’s xG is 2.59 versus Vaprus’s 2.05, the visitors average 22.2 shots per match compared to the hosts’ 17.14 and win 80% of their games. In their last 5 matches Levadia have won all 5 (100%) and scored an average of 1.4 goals after the break, while Vaprus have 0.6 second-half goals in their last 5, suggesting the visitors are more dangerous in the second half. Additionally, Vaprus have higher shot efficiency (conversion rate 18% versus Levadia’s 10%), which increases the likelihood they will open the scoring by half-time, but that efficiency does not offset Levadia’s xG and form advantage. Therefore the most reliable signal is HT/FT = 1/2 (Vaprus leading at the break, Tallinna FC Levadia winning after 90 minutes).