Varaždin vs Rijeka: match statistics

Varaždin sit 3rd in the table versus Rijeka’s 4th and have 12 wins this season compared to Rijeka’s 11. In the last 5 matches the hosts have a 3-1-1 record (2.0 points per game) while Rijeka are 2-1-2 (1.4 PPG). Offensively Varaždin scored 8 goals in their last 5 games (1.6 per game) versus Rijeka’s 6 (1.2 per game); at home they average 1.47 goals, 4.27 shots on target and an 11% conversion, while Rijeka away average 1.13 goals, 3.27 shots on target and a 9% conversion. Defensively the hosts conceded 4 goals in the last 5 (0.8 per game) and 1.33 goals per game at home, whereas Rijeka conceded 8 in their last 5 (1.6 per game) and also 1.33 away, but have a worse away GD (-3 vs the hosts’ +2). Quality metrics show xG 1.57 for Varaždin at home versus xG 1.48 for Rijeka away, but key differences are a lower share of goalless matches for the hosts (13% vs 33%) and a higher home win rate (47% vs 27% away wins). Based on this I tip a home win (1) and estimate probabilities at ~60% for Varaždin, 25% for a draw and 15% for Rijeka.

I select the 'YES' scenario (BTTS - Yes) as more likely, estimating 62% vs 38%, because xG and goals-per-game analysis indicate realistic scoring chances for both teams. Varaždin posts xG_for 1.89 versus Rijeka xG_against 1.48, suggesting the home side should score, while Rijeka has xG_for 1.48 against Varaždin xG_against 1.16, so the visitors also possess offensive potential. Season averages show Varaždin scores 1.6 and concedes 1.0, Rijeka scores 1.13 and concedes 1.33, and the league BTTS average is 55%, which further supports a both-teams-to-score prediction. Although the home side’s season BTTS is only 40% (Rijeka 53%) and the last 5 matches give mixed signals (Varaždin 60% BTTS vs Rijeka 20% BTTS), the higher xG and goal averages tip the balance toward BTTS - Yes. Additionally, Varaždin averages 4.53 shots on target per match versus Rijeka’s 3.27, increasing the likelihood that both sides will exchange goals.

Expected goals were calculated as the average of the team’s attacking xG and the opponent’s conceded xG: Varaždin 1.69 (attacking xG 1.89 vs conceded xG by Rijeka 1.48), Rijeka 1.32 (attacking xG 1.48 vs conceded xG by Varaždin 1.16), total 3.01 goals. A Poisson model with λ=3.01 implies probabilities of Over 1.5 ≈80%, Over 2.5 ≈58% and Over 3.5 ≈35%. This is corroborated by attacking metrics: Varaždin averages 16.33 shots and 4.53 shots on target with a conversion rate of 10%, Rijeka 12.87 shots and 3.27 on target with a 9% conversion — supporting generation of ~3 goals. Seasonal rates show frequent goal games: Over 0.5 occurs in 87% of home matches and 93% of away matches, and Over 1.5 in 80% of home matches and 67% of away matches. Given the highest probability (80%) and the consistency of xG and shot statistics, I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest and most likely signal.

Varaždin holds a clear offensive advantage and better form: xG 1.89 versus Rijeka’s 1.48, averaging 16.33 shots and 4.53 on target per match compared to the visitors’ 12.87 and 3.27, and 1.67 points per home match versus Rijeka’s 1.13. The home side are particularly strong in the first half — they have led at the break in 6 matches this season (40%) and in 60% of their last 5 (3 of 5), with a first-half goals average of 0.73 for the season and 1.2 in the last 5 (versus 0.6 and 0.4 for Rijeka). Rijeka have defensive issues in the short term, conceding 1.6 goals on average in the last 5 matches while Varaždin concede 0.8, which increases the likelihood of the hosts maintaining a lead at the break. Additionally, Varaždin have 40% clean sheets this season and 60% clean halves in the last 5, and their higher xG and shot volume suggest control of the match. On this basis the strongest and most consistent signal is an HT/FT 1/1 — a lead at the break and ultimately a Varaždin victory.