Varzim vs CD Mafra: match statistics
Varzim vs CD Mafra: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Varzim play CD Mafra in Liga 3 (Portugal). The match date is 11 April 2026 at 12:00. Final score: 0:2.
Current form
Varzim: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. CD Mafra: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Varzim scores 1.22 and concedes 1.13 goals per match. CD Mafra scores 1.41 and concedes 1.34. League average: 2.23 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Varzim 47%, CD Mafra 63%. Over 2.5: Varzim 44%, CD Mafra 47%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 40%.
xG, shots and style
CD Mafra has higher xG: 1.41 vs 1.28. Varzim: 9.8 shots per match, CD Mafra: 10.3.
Match halves
Varzim: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.63. CD Mafra: half-time lead 34%, second-half goals 0.81.
Goals by minute
Varzim: 76-90+ (12 goals). CD Mafra: 76-90+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga 3: 2.23 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 40%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-0-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Match description
I back the home win because Varzim shows a markedly superior home defense: 0.69 goals conceded per home match versus CD Mafra’s 1.62 conceded away. In attack the hosts also perform better — Varzim averages 1.54 goals per home match with xG 1.45 and 4.69 shots on target, while Mafra averages 1.15 goals away with xG 1.36 and 3.77 shots on target, indicating Varzim’s higher efficiency in creating and finishing chances. Additionally, Varzim has 38% clean sheets at home and a 54% home-win rate, whereas Mafra has only 8% clean sheets and a 23% win rate on the road; the visitors also carry a negative away goal difference (-6). Both teams are in poor form — over the last five matches both average 0.6 points per game; Varzim scored 3 and conceded 8 in that span, Mafra scored 5 and conceded 12, highlighting the visitors’ greater defensive issues. Considering the defensive edge and better efficiency at similar xG, I estimate the probabilities: Varzim win 60%, draw 25%, Mafra win 15%.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Varzim | CD Mafra | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 44% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
CD Mafra is 40% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Varzim · 1.4 pts / match - CD Mafra
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
CD Mafra is 16% better for: goals scored per match.
1.22 goals / match - Varzim · 1.41 goals / match - CD Mafra
Varzim is 19% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.13 goals / match - Varzim · 1.34 goals / match - CD Mafra
Varzim scores in 66% of matches (21 of 32 matches), while CD Mafra keeps a clean sheet in 31% (10 of 32 matches).
CD Mafra scores in 88% of matches (28 of 32 matches), while Varzim keeps a clean sheet in 25% (8 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Varzim
Over / Under — CD Mafra
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
CD Mafra is 10% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.25 pts / match - Varzim · 1.38 pts / match - CD Mafra
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Varzim - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 34%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
CD Mafra - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 34% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Varzim
CD Mafra
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga 3).
Teams vs league
| Varzim | Liga | CD Mafra | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.34 | 2.23 | ▲ 2.75 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 47% | 49% | ▲ 63% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 44% | 40% | ▲ 47% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 25% | 31% | • 31% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 69% | 66% | ▲ 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 78% | 74% | ▲ 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Varzim 0 - 0 - 1 CD Mafra. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Varzim vs CD Mafra?
The Liga 3 match finished Varzim 0:2 CD Mafra. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Varzim vs CD Mafra?
Varzim score 1.22 goals per game on average and CD Mafra 1.41. The Liga 3 average is 2.23 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 40% of games. Both teams score in 47% of Varzim's matches and 63% of CD Mafra's.
What form are Varzim and CD Mafra in?
Over the last 5 games Varzim have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and CD Mafra 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Varzim vs CD Mafra?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.