Venados vs Morelia: match statistics
Venados vs Morelia: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Venados played against Morelia in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The game was played on September 26, 2026. Venue: Estadio Olímpico Carlos Iturralde Rivero. Final score: 2:1.
Recent form
Venados has 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.20 points per game. Morelia has 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss, with 2.40 points per game.
Scoring records
Venados scores 2.44 goals per game and allows 2.11. Morelia scores 2.11 and allows 1.00. Games in this league average 3.22 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 78% of Venados's games and 56% of Morelia's. The Over 2.5 rates are 89% and 56%, compared with league averages of 56% for BTTS and 61% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Venados has the higher season xG average, 1.96 to 1.72 per game. Venados takes 15.3 shots per game, while Morelia takes 13.3.
First-half and second-half trends
Venados leads at halftime in 22% of its games and scores 1.78 goals per game after halftime. Morelia leads at halftime in 44% and scores 1.44 after halftime.
When the teams score
Venados's most productive scoring window is minutes 61-75 (7 goals). For Morelia, it is minutes 46-60 (7 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Ascenso MX games average 3.22 goals. Both teams score in 56% of games, and 61% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 2 previous meetings were available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 1 away win. Those games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Venados have been highly effective at home, winning all 4 matches while averaging 3.75 goals and scoring in every game. The hosts create a high volume of chances, averaging 21.5 shots, including 10.25 on target, with an average xG of 2.50 compared to just 1.15 xG allowed to opponents. Morelia are in good overall form, with 4 wins in their last 5 matches and only 4 goals conceded during that period, but they average just 1 goal per away game. The visitors maintain a solid defensive record, conceding 0.5 goals per match away from home, but their 12.25 shots and 4 shots on target per game fall well short of Venados' attacking numbers. Home advantage and the significantly higher quality of chances created point towards another Venados win, although Morelia's strong recent run reduces confidence in this scenario.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Venados has a very clear profile of matches featuring goals from both sides: BTTS occurred in 80% of their season matches and also in 80% of their last five games. The hosts score an average of 3.0 goals but concede 1.4, while in their five most recent appearances, their defense allowed as many as 2.2 goals per match. Morelia has considerably more cautious season data, with BTTS in only 25% of matches and 50% clean sheets; however, they currently score an average of 1.8 goals per game, and their xG from the last five matches stands at 1.70. Venados failed to keep a clean sheet in 80% of matches, while Morelia creates offensively comparable chances to the hosts, with an xG of 1.70 versus 1.72. Morelia’s defensive quality advantage limits confidence in the pick, but Venados’ poor recent defending and the high efficiency of both attacks slightly favor BTTS - Yes, meaning a goal for each side.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Venados are highly offensive-minded: they average 3.0 goals in the competition and as many as 2.8 across their last five matches, with 1.72 xG per game. Morelia concede just 0.5 goals on average this season, but their last five matches have produced 0.8 goals conceded and 1.26 xG allowed to opponents, which should not completely contain the hosts. The visitors create sufficient attacking value themselves, averaging 1.51 xG this season and 1.70 across their last five appearances, while Venados concede 1.4 goals on average. Venados matches have gone Over 2.5 goals in 80% of their games this season and 100% of their last five, but Morelia’s more cautious profile reduces confidence in the higher lines. The strongest pick remains Over 1.5 goals, as the hosts have scored at least 2 goals in 100% of their matches this season, while both teams regularly generate chances with a combined projected total of 2.95 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Morelia has a clearly stronger first-half profile: they led at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Venados went into half-time trailing in as many as 3 of their last 5. The visitors conceded an average of just 0.2 goals before the break in their last five matches, whereas Venados scored only 0.6 goals on average during the opening 45 minutes over the same period. The full-time results trend also favors Morelia, who have won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored an average of 1.8 goals, while the hosts have conceded 2.2 goals on average. Venados remain dangerous after the break, averaging 2.2 goals in second halves, but Morelia have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their away matches. Therefore, the most likely scenario is a Morelia lead at half-time followed by a full-time victory: HT/FT 2/2.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Venados | Morelia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 46% | 48% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Morelia is 100% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / game - Venados · 2.4 pts / game - Morelia
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Venados is 16% better for: goals scored per game.
2.44 goals / game - Venados · 2.11 goals / game - Morelia
Morelia is 111% better for: goals allowed per game.
2.11 goals / game - Venados · 1 goals / game - Morelia
Venados scores in 100% of games (9 of 9 games), while Morelia keeps a clean sheet in 33% (3 of 9 games).
Morelia scores in 89% of games (8 of 9 games), while Venados keeps a clean sheet in 22% (2 of 9 games).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Venados
Over / Under - Morelia
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Morelia is 67% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / game - Venados · 1.67 pts / game - Morelia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Venados - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 22% of games and wins 44%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Morelia - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 44% of games and wins 78%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.1 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 2.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -4 | +7 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Venados
Morelia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Venados | Liga | Morelia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 4.56 | 3.22 | ▼ 3.11 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 78% | 56% | • 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 89% | 61% | ▼ 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 22% | 24% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 89% | 77% | • 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 81% | ▲ 89% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Venados's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss against Morelia. Games average 3.50 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Venados vs Morelia?
The Ascenso MX match finished Venados 2:1 Morelia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Venados and Morelia?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Venados won 0, Morelia won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Venados vs Morelia?
Venados score 2.44 goals per game on average and Morelia 2.11. The Ascenso MX average is 3.22 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 61% of games. Both teams score in 78% of Venados's matches and 56% of Morelia's.
What form are Venados and Morelia in?
Over the last 5 games Venados have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Morelia 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Venados vs Morelia?
The statistical background for Venados vs Morelia — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.