Viborg vs OB: match statistics

In the last 5 matches OB has a record of 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, scoring 7 goals and conceding 8, while Viborg in the same 5 fixtures are 1-1-3, 6 scored and 11 conceded. That equates to an average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match for OB, and 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded for Viborg, meaning the visitors are inferior to their opponents defensively by about 0.6 goals per game. OB sit 8th in the table versus Viborg in 12th, and the goal difference over the last 5 matches is -1 for OB versus -5 for Viborg, which suggests greater efficiency from the visitors in preventing chances. Both teams have an identical 0.8 points per game in the last 5 matches, so given similar short-term form the advantage goes to the better goals-against ratio and slightly higher efficiency of OB, hence the pick for an away win.

In the last 5 matches Viborg had BTTS in 40% of games and No Goal in 60%, yielding an average 50% which suggests a moderate probability of both teams scoring. Viborg scored 6 and conceded 11 goals in those five matches (avg. 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded per game), while OB scored 7 and conceded 8 (avg. 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded). From an xG perspective Viborg has xG For 1.79 and xG Against 1.58, and OB xG For 1.61 and xG Against 1.69; comparisons 1.79 vs 1.69 and 1.61 vs 1.58 indicate both teams create scoring opportunities against each other. Viborg’s weaker defense (2.2 conceded avg.) and the fact OB records BTTS in 60% of their last five matches increase the likelihood of goals at both ends. Considering these figures and the unstable form of both sides (Viborg 'lwdll', OB 'lwldl', with 3 losses in the last 5), I assess BTTS probability at roughly 65% versus 35% for No Goal.

In the last 5 matches Viborg scored 6 goals (1.2 per match) and OB 7 goals (1.4), giving a combined average of 2.6 goals per game. However, xG indicates higher potential: Viborg’s xG is 1.79 and OB’s xG is 1.61, while xG conceded is about 1.58 (against Viborg) and 1.69 (against OB), suggesting more chances being created. Based on this I estimate expected goals of approximately 1.74 for the home side and 1.60 for the visitors (total 3.34), clearly above the 2.5 line. Viborg has conceded on average 2.2 goals in the last 5 matches (11 conceded) and OB 1.6 (8 conceded), and the percentage of matches over 2.5 was 40% for Viborg and 60% for OB, which further supports at least three goals. I assign Over 2.5 a 69% probability (Over 1.5: 94%, Over 3.5: 43%) — Over 2.5 is the best market to play because the expected combined xG of 3.34 and Viborg’s high goals conceded increases the likelihood of at least three goals.

Analysis of the last 5 matches indicates a draw is more likely at Half-Time: Viborg were level at the break in 60% of their last 5 games, OB only in 20%, yielding an average of around 40% chance of a halftime draw when comparing both teams. At the break both teams averaged 0.8 goals each (Viborg 0.8, OB 0.8), giving approximately 1.6 goals total by Half-Time, which supports the X HT scenario. By Full-Time the visitors are favored — Viborg averaged 1.2 goals scored and conceded 2.2 in their last 5 matches, while OB averaged 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded, so the goal differential favors OB. Additionally, in second halves OB averaged 0.6 goals versus Viborg’s 0.4, and Viborg conceded an average of 1.2 goals after the break, increasing the likelihood that decisive goals will come in the second half in OB’s favor; hence the X/2 HT/FT selection is the strongest signal.