Víkingur Reykjavík vs Fram: match statistics

Víkingur Reykjavík are top of the table and have won 16 of their 21 matches this season, with just one defeat, while Fram sit in third place. The home side’s advantage is particularly clear on home soil: they win 80% of their matches, have not lost any, score an average of 3.3 goals and register 7.9 shots on target per game. Fram have also performed well away from home, with a 70% win rate and an average of 2.3 goals scored, but concede 1.6 goals per match compared with Víkingur’s 0.8. The hosts also create more high-quality chances, recording an xG of 2.33 compared with Fram’s 1.92, while their defense allows opponents an xG of 1.05, lower than the visitors’ 1.43. Fram’s stronger recent run, with 10 points collected from five matches, increases the likelihood of a competitive, high-scoring encounter, but Víkingur’s home advantage points to a home win.

The signal for both teams to score is very strong, as BTTS occurred in 82% of Víkingur’s matches and 70% of Fram’s, compared with a league average of 71%. In their last five matches, the hosts recorded BTTS in 80% of cases, while Fram did so in as many as 100%, scoring an average of 2.6 goals and conceding 2.4. Both teams create plenty of high-quality chances: average xG stands at 2.12 for Víkingur and 1.92 for Fram, while their defenses allow 1.65 and 1.43 xG respectively. Víkingur has kept a clean sheet in only 9% of matches, compared with 20% for Fram, significantly increasing the likelihood of both sides finding the net. Additionally, 82% of the hosts’ matches and 60% of the visitors’ matches featured at least three goals with both teams scoring, making BTTS - Yes the most likely outcome.

The profile of both teams clearly points towards goals: Víkingur averages 2.82 goals scored per match, while Fram averages 2.30. The hosts concede an average of 2.18 goals, compared with 1.60 for the visitors, while the average xG figures for both sides stand at 2.12 and 1.92, respectively. In their last five matches, Fram scored 13 and conceded 12 goals, while Víkingur’s games produced 9 goals scored and 9 conceded. At least two goals were scored in 91% of Víkingur’s matches and 80% of Fram’s, while the league-wide average is as high as 3.89 goals. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as both the high quality of chances created and the teams’ poor ability to keep clean sheets significantly reduce the likelihood of a match finishing with no more than one goal.

Fram have a clearly stronger results profile: they win 70% of their matches and average 2.30 points per game, compared with Víkingur’s 55% win rate and 1.91 points per game. The visitors are more likely to take the lead at the break, doing so in 50% of matches, while their rate of leading after 45 minutes has risen to 60% across their last five fixtures; during this period, they scored as many as 2.0 goals before half-time per match. Fram’s advantage is also evident in defensive quality, conceding 1.43 xG compared with the hosts’ 1.65, while they average 1.60 goals conceded against Víkingur’s 2.18. However, the hosts are highly prolific, averaging 2.82 goals scored, with both teams scoring in 82% of their matches, so turnaround scenarios after the break remain relevant. Nevertheless, the strongest individual scenario is Fram leading at half-time and securing the win, supported by the visitors’ run of 3 victories in their last 5 matches and a 60% win rate over that period.