Viktoria Köln vs Sonnenhof Großaspach: match statistics

Viktoria Köln are 2nd and have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while 13th-placed Sonnenhof Großaspach have recorded 2 wins over the same period. At home, the hosts win 75% of their matches and score an average of 3.25 goals, while the visitors are yet to win away and concede an average of 2 goals. The difference in finishing efficiency is clear from shot conversion: 23% for Viktoria in home matches compared with 7% for Großaspach away. However, the visitors should not be underestimated, as their away xG stands at 1.90, higher than the hosts’ home xG of 1.71, indicating they have the potential to create chances. Even so, Viktoria’s stronger home record and greater finishing efficiency point to a home win.

The strongest signal against both teams scoring is Viktoria Köln’s record: BTTS has occurred in only 25% of their matches, and the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 50% of games. Sonnenhof Großaspach have failed to score in 33% of away matches and average 1.0 goals on the road, making their scoring output the main concern. On the other hand, the visitors have a BTTS rate of 67%, and their xG stands at 1.90 compared with the 1.35 xG conceded by the hosts, so their chances of scoring cannot be ruled out. Viktoria should have opportunities to find the net, given their home xG of 1.83 and the fact that their opponents concede an average of 2.0 goals away from home. Taken together, these figures give a slight edge to BTTS - No, which means at least one team is expected to finish the match without scoring.

In the teams’ last 5 matches, an average of 3.2 goals were scored, with the Over 2.5 goals line being reached in 80% of Viktoria’s matches and 60% of Sonnenhof’s. Their attacking potential is supported by xG figures of 1.83 for the home side and 1.90 for the visitors, although their actual average goals scored are lower at 0.75 and 1.00, respectively. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals: it landed in 100% of the visitors’ matches, in which they concede an average of 2.00 goals, and in 50% of the home side’s matches. Although Viktoria concede just 0.75 goals per match, their return of 2.4 goals scored per match across their last five games and a projected total of 2.80 goals point to at least two goals in this match.

Viktoria Köln led at the break in 50% of their home matches so far and did so in 60% of their last five games overall, which supports the prospect of them taking the lead in the first half. Sonnenhof Großaspach failed to score before half-time in 67% of their away games, although the fact that the hosts were trailing at the break in 50% of their home matches means this scenario cannot be considered certain. The gap is clearer over the full 90 minutes: Viktoria earn 1.75 points per home match and win 50% of those games, while the visitors collect 0.33 points per away match and have yet to win. In addition, Sonnenhof concede an average of 2.00 goals away from home, including 1.33 after half-time, increasing the hosts’ chances of holding on to any lead they may establish. Therefore, the most likely single HT/FT scenario is Viktoria leading at the break and winning after 90 minutes.