Vila Nova vs Náutico: match statistics
Vila Nova vs Náutico: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Vila Nova played against Náutico in Serie B (Brazil). The game was played on June 20, 2026. Venue: Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga. Final score: 4:3.
Recent form
Vila Nova has 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 2.40 points per game. Náutico has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 1.40 points per game.
Scoring records
Vila Nova scores 1.38 goals per game and allows 0.92. Náutico scores 1.38 and allows 1.08. Games in this league average 2.31 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 54% of Vila Nova's games and 31% of Náutico's. The Over 2.5 rates are 38% and 38%, compared with league averages of 51% for BTTS and 44% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Náutico has the higher season xG average, 1.74 to 1.48 per game. Vila Nova takes 13.9 shots per game, while Náutico takes 16.3.
First-half and second-half trends
Vila Nova leads at halftime in 23% of its games and scores 0.92 goals per game after halftime. Náutico leads at halftime in 23% and scores 1.00 after halftime.
When the teams score
Vila Nova's most productive scoring window is minutes 61-75 (7 goals). For Náutico, it is minutes 76-90+ (6 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Serie B games average 2.31 goals. Both teams score in 51% of games, and 44% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
There is not enough head-to-head history for a meaningful comparison.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Vila Nova (2nd) shows strong home metrics: 7 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses this season, 18 goals scored and 12 conceded, and in the last five matches overall they are 4-0-1 (form: wwwwl) with 6 goals for and 2 against. Náutico (7th) have a 6-2-5 record with 18 scored and 14 conceded; in their last five matches overall they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (wwlld), scoring 9 and conceding 7, averaging 1.4 points per match. Defensively the advantage lies with the home side: Vila Nova concedes 0.83 goals per home match versus Náutico’s 1.29 conceded on the road, and average xG against is 0.96 for Vila Nova versus 1.42 for Náutico, which suggests the visitors generate more expected chances but the home defense limits their efficiency. In attack both teams are similar: Vila Nova has average xG 1.58 and 1.67 goals per home match with 4.67 shots on target and an 11% conversion rate, while Náutico has xG 1.55 and 1.71 goals away with 4.29 shots on target and a 12% conversion, however the visitors failed to score in 29% of away matches whereas the hosts have 0% scoreless home games. Considering the unbeaten home record (0% losses), higher 2.4 points per match in the last 5 for Vila Nova versus 1.4 for Náutico, and better goal protection, I project a home win; probabilities estimated at 65% home, 20% draw and 15% away.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Vila Nova at home has 0% BTTS and 50% clean sheets; seasonally they score 1.0 and concede 0.83, and in the last 5 home matches they conceded only 2 goals (0.4 per match), which strongly favors No Goal. Náutico away has BTTS 57% and averages 1.71 goals scored (last 5: 1.8), but concedes 1.29 seasonally and 1.4 in the last 5 (7 conceded in L5), so the visitors can score but have clear defensive vulnerabilities. xG values show Vila Nova creates 1.97 xG at home and allows 0.79 xG, while Náutico has 1.55 xG for and 1.42 xG against; the low 0.79 xG against for the hosts suggests real chances for the visitors will be limited. Weighing 0% home BTTS, 50% clean sheets and the hosts' last 5 with 2 conceded versus the guests' 7 conceded, I prefer the 'No' scenario at 65% probability versus 35% for 'Yes' (BTTS - Yes).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG the expected goals are: Vila Nova xG_for 1.97 vs xG_against_away 1.42 → ≈1.70 goals for the home side; Náutico xG_for 1.55 vs xG_against_home 0.79 → ≈1.17 goals; total ≈2.87. With an average of 2.87 the Poisson distribution yields roughly a 78% probability for Over 1.5, 55% for Over 2.5 and 32% for Over 3.5 (corresponding Under: 22%, 45%, 68%). Náutico scores 1.71 goals per game this season and has 71% of matches with over 1.5 goals and 43% with over 2.5, while Vila Nova averages 1.0 goal, 33% of matches over 1.5 and 50% clean sheets; the season frequency of both teams scoring for Vila Nova is 0%. Higher Náutico efficiency (conversion 12% vs 5% for Vila Nova) and high xG for both teams (1.97 and 1.55) support goal potential, although the high share of home clean sheets limits confidence in Over 2.5. As a result the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5 (recommended); Over 2.5 remains moderate (55%), and Over 3.5 is weakly supported (32%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Vila Nova holds a clear advantage in expected goals: xG 1.97 versus Náutico's 1.55, and a higher shots average (18.33 vs 14.57), indicating game control and more chance creation. Nevertheless, hosts were level at the break in 50% of matches (drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 50%) and average only 0.33 goals by half-time compared to the visitors' 0.43, so the most likely half-time outcome is a draw. In the second half Vila Nova shows superior form (last 5 matches: 4 wins, 80% win rate) and keeps a clean sheet in 50% of fixtures across the season, which gives them a realistic chance to win after the break. Náutico frequently scores late (5 goals between the 76th and 90th minutes) and has 57% of matches with both teams scoring, but a worse xG conceded of 1.42 suggests defensive vulnerability. For these reasons the safest scenario is a draw at half-time and a Vila Nova victory at full-time (HT/FT = X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Vila Nova | Náutico | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 29% | 26% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Vila Nova is 71% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / game - Vila Nova · 1.4 pts / game - Náutico
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Vila Nova is 17% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.92 goals / game - Vila Nova · 1.08 goals / game - Náutico
Vila Nova scores in 85% of games (11 of 13 meczów), while Náutico keeps a clean sheet in 31% (4 of 13 meczów).
Náutico scores in 62% of games (8 of 13 meczów), while Vila Nova keeps a clean sheet in 31% (4 of 13 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Vila Nova
Over / Under - Náutico
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Vila Nova is 6% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.15 pts / game - Vila Nova · 1.08 pts / game - Náutico
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Vila Nova - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 23% of games and wins 54%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Náutico - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 23% of games and wins 46%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Vila Nova
Náutico
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie B).
Teams vs league
| Vila Nova | Liga | Náutico | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.31 | 2.31 | ▲ 2.46 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 54% | 51% | ▼ 31% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 38% | 44% | ▼ 38% |
| Clean sheets | • 31% | 30% | • 31% |
| Goal before half-time | • 62% | 62% | • 62% |
| Goal after half-time | • 77% | 77% | ▲ 85% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Vila Nova vs Náutico?
The Serie B match finished Vila Nova 4:3 Náutico. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Vila Nova vs Náutico?
Vila Nova score 1.38 goals per game on average and Náutico 1.38. The Serie B average is 2.31 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 54% of Vila Nova's matches and 31% of Náutico's.
What form are Vila Nova and Náutico in?
Over the last 5 games Vila Nova have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and Náutico 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Vila Nova vs Náutico?
The statistical background for Vila Nova vs Náutico — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.