Vis Pesaro vs Nuova Monterosi: match statistics

Nuova Monterosi are showing clearly more stable form: they have lost only once in their last five matches, recording 1 win and 3 draws, while Vis Pesaro have suffered five consecutive defeats. The hosts have conceded as many as 16 goals in their last five games, and at home they concede an average of 2.67 goals per match, with an xG against them of 1.98. The visitors create better-quality chances away from home, posting an xG of 1.69 compared with Vis Pesaro’s 1.31, and average 15.5 shots per match versus their opponents’ 9.67. Vis Pesaro do average 1.33 goals at home and have yet to be held scoreless, but they have not recorded a single home win or clean sheet. The hosts’ defensive problems and Monterosi’s significantly more favorable results trend point towards an away win, although their 50% draw rate on the road increases the likelihood of the points being shared.

The signal for both teams to score is clear: Nuova Monterosi recorded BTTS - Yes in 100% of their matches this season, while both teams reached 80% over their last five fixtures. Vis Pesaro currently have a very weak defense, conceding an average of 3.2 goals in their last five matches, with opponents posting an average xG of 2.14, which significantly increases the visitors’ chances of scoring. The away side averages 15.5 shots and 4 on target per match, while their xG stands at 1.69, so despite scoring only 1.0 goal on average, their attacking potential remains sufficient. The hosts score an average of 1.5 goals at home, while their opponents concede 1.5 goals away from home, and Nuova Monterosi have kept no clean sheets. The main risk to the pick is Vis Pesaro’s decline in scoring efficiency to 0.8 goals over their last five matches, but the overall data still supports the scenario in which both teams score.

The preference for Over 1.5 goals is supported by the fact that both teams have scored at least one goal in 100% of their matches so far, while Over 1.5 has occurred in 75% of Vis Pesaro’s games and 100% of Nuova Monterosi’s. Vis Pesaro have conceded as many as 3.2 goals per match over their last five games, with an xGA of 2.14, which clearly boosts the visitors’ attacking potential. Nuova Monterosi average 1.69 xG and 4.0 shots on target per match, while the hosts have allowed opponents a high number of chances in their recent run. At the same time, the 2.5 line is more evenly balanced: the hosts have gone Over in 25% of their matches this season, compared with 50% for the visitors, although all five of Vis Pesaro’s last matches went above this line. The 2.75-goal forecast therefore primarily points to the safer Over 1.5 angle, while four or more goals are less likely given that neither team has exceeded the 3.5 line so far.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Nuova Monterosi victory in the match, as Vis Pesaro have lost their last five games, scoring an average of just 0.8 goals and conceding as many as 3.2. In these five matches, the hosts scored only 0.2 goals per game before the break, while they went into half-time trailing in 60% of cases. Nuova Monterosi are showing significantly more stable current form: they have suffered only one defeat in five matches, drawing 60% of them and conceding an average of 1.0 goal. After the break, the visitors scored an average of 0.8 goals and conceded just 0.2, whereas Vis Pesaro allowed an average of 1.6 goals in this phase of the game. Although the hosts have a better full-season home record, their current form and the visitors’ advantage in second halves increase the likelihood of an even start followed by a Monterosi turnaround after the break.