Vision vs Aduana Stars: match statistics

I back a Vision home win: at home they average 1.5 goals per game with 1.25 xG and 8.06 shots (3.56 on target), while Aduana away average only 0.69 goals per game with 0.69 xG and 3.7 shots (1.8 on target). Hosts fail to score less often (they are goalless in only 25% of home matches vs Aduana’s 50% away) and have superior defensive metrics – conceding 0.75 goals per home match and keeping clean sheets in 56% of games, whereas Aduana concedes 0.88 away and has 31% clean sheets. The quality gap is confirmed by xG: 1.25 xG for Vision vs 0.69 xG for the visitors shows Vision generates almost twice the high-value chances; conversion rates are similar (19% for both), so the advantage comes from chance volume. In the last 5 matches Vision scored 7 goals and recorded 3 wins, averaging 1.8 points per game, while Aduana has 3 goals and only 1 win in five (1.0 point per game). Considering these differences (shots 8.06 vs 3.7, xG 1.25 vs 0.69, clean sheets 56% vs 31%), I estimate Vision’s win probability at ~70%, draw 18% and away win 12%.

Statistics favor the 'no' scenario (BTTS - No): Vision at home have 59% of matches with a clean sheet, and their seasonal average goals conceded is only 0.41 per match. Aduana scores on average 0.69 goals per match this season and 0.6 goals in the last 5 fixtures, and their seasonal BTTS is only 25%, indicating the visitors rarely score. The hosts generate 1.45 xG and on average 4.36 shots on target per match, while Aduana has 0.69 xG and 1.8 shots on target; despite the visitors’ higher shot conversion (19% vs 6% for the hosts), Aduana’s volume of chance creation is low. Seasonal BTTS rates are 35% for Vision and 25% for Aduana versus a league average of 33%, and in the last 5 matches BTTS values are 40% (Vision) and 20% (Aduana), which confirms a tendency toward matches where at least one team fails to score. Based on this I favor the 'no' scenario and propose an estimated probability of about 80% for 'no' versus 20% for 'yes', because the high clean sheet rate of 59% and Aduana’s low goals average of 0.69/0.6 weigh more strongly against BTTS than the hosts’ offensive signals.

xG analysis estimates 1.31 expected goals for Vision (home xG 1.45 and Aduana conceded xG 1.17) and 0.76 for Aduana (their xG 0.69 and Vision conceded xG 0.82), totaling ~2.07 goals. Vision clearly dominates chance creation: they average 11.91 shots and 4.36 on target per match versus Aduana’s 3.7 shots and 1.8 on target, and in the last 5 matches the hosts scored 7 goals (1.4 avg.) versus 3 (0.6) for the visitors, increasing the likelihood of at least two goals. Seasonal rates show Over 1.5 in 41% of Vision’s matches and 44% of Aduana’s, while Over 2.5 occurred in only 35% and 13% respectively — this implies a moderate probability of exceeding 2.5, but solid chances for Over 1.5. Additionally, Vision have 59% clean sheets versus Aduana’s 31% and low BTTS (35%/25%), so a result with one dominant scorer is likely and very high-scoring games are rare; therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal, estimating Over 1.5 at ~80%.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Vision win at full-time (X/1), because the home team drew at the break in 76% of matches this season, while the visitors led at the break in only 6% of games. Vision holds a clear advantage in the quality of chances: xG 1.45 versus Aduana’s 0.69 and an average of 11.91 shots versus 3.7, which favors scoring after the break. Second-half data confirm this tendency — the home side scores an average of 1.0 goals in the second half (AVG_2hg_home) and have scored 10 goals in minutes 76–90, and their overall win rate is 53% versus the visitors’ 25%. Therefore I assign 42% to X/1, 26% to X/X as the next most likely outcome, and 11% to 2/2; scenarios where the home team leads at the break are unlikely (only 6% this season), hence the low shares for 1/X and 1/2.