Vitória Guimarães vs Casa Pia: match statistics
Vitória Guimarães vs Casa Pia: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Vitória Guimarães played against Casa Pia in Liga NOS (Portugal). The game was played on May 11, 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Recent form
Vitória Guimarães has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 2.00 points per game. Casa Pia has 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses, with 0.20 points per game.
Scoring records
Vitória Guimarães scores 1.22 goals per game and allows 1.50. Casa Pia scores 0.91 and allows 1.75. Games in this league average 2.70 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 44% of Vitória Guimarães's games and 47% of Casa Pia's. The Over 2.5 rates are 47% and 47%, compared with league averages of 48% for BTTS and 54% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Vitória Guimarães has the higher season xG average, 1.44 to 0.96 per game. Vitória Guimarães takes 13.3 shots per game, while Casa Pia takes 8.4.
First-half and second-half trends
Vitória Guimarães leads at halftime in 19% of its games and scores 0.69 goals per game after halftime. Casa Pia leads at halftime in 25% and scores 0.44 after halftime.
When the teams score
Vitória Guimarães's most productive scoring window is minutes 61-75 (10 goals). For Casa Pia, it is minutes 31-45+ (7 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Liga Portugal games average 2.70 goals. Both teams score in 48% of games, and 54% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a home win (1): Vitória Guimarães have scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches and hold a 3-1-1 record (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), averaging 2 points per match, while Casa Pia have scored only 2 goals and sit at 0-1-4, averaging 0.2 points per match. Offensive metrics and chance creation favor Vitória: at home they average 1.63 goals per match, 13.38 shots with 4.19 on target and a 12% conversion rate, whereas Casa Pia away average 0.75 goals per match, 9.31 shots, 2.88 on target and an 8% conversion. Defensively the visitors also underperform — Casa Pia concede 1.94 goals away (56 this season) and have a 50% rate of away matches without scoring, while Vitória concede 1.13 at home and fail to score at home in only 19% of matches. xG metrics confirm the home advantage: Vitória’s average home xG is 1.46 versus Casa Pia’s away xG of 1.01, and xG against for the visitors away is 1.61 vs 1.26 for the hosts, suggesting more high-quality chances for Vitória and greater risk of concessions from Casa Pia. Considering Vitória’s 50% home win rate and +8 home goal difference, combined with Casa Pia’s run of 0 wins in 5 and 63% away loss rate, I assess probabilities at 70% home, 18% draw and 12% away.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I assess BTTS as less likely because Casa Pia averages only 0.75 goals this season and just 0.4 goals in the last 5 matches (2 goals in last 5), while their season share of BTTS games is 38%. Vitória Guimarães has a season BTTS of 56% and averages 2.0 goals in the last 5 matches (10 goals in last 5), so the hosts are most likely to score, but they also concede 1.56 goals per game on average this season. Casa Pia generates xG 1.01 seasonally but actually scores 0.75 goals and has a low shot conversion of 8%, which suggests that their real scoring chance is depressed relative to xG. A simple estimate using average goals and xG places the BTTS probability around 34–40%, so I assign 37% to "Yes" and 63% to "No". As a result I pick 'No' as the strongest signal — higher likelihood that Vitória will score while Casa Pia will remain goalless due to poor form (last 5: 1 point and 2 goals scored) and low conversion.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The expected xG is approximately 1.25 for Vitória Guimarães and 1.18 for Casa Pia, totaling 2.43 expected goals in the match. Both teams show high rates above 1.5: Vitória records >1.5 in 75% of its home games, while Casa Pia does so in 81% of away matches, averaging roughly a 78% probability for Over 1.5. Additionally, Vitória has averaged 2.0 goals in the last 5 matches (10 goals in 5), whereas Casa Pia only 0.4 (2 goals in 5), and the difference in shooting efficiency (14% vs 8%) points to a higher likelihood of goals from open play. The 2.5 line is more balanced (estimated Over 2.5 around 48%) due to the discrepancy: home Over 2.5 only 31% versus away 63%, and an expected 2.43 being below 2.5. As a result, the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5, therefore I recommend playing over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal is a half-time draw and Vitória Guimarães to win the match (X/1): a half-time draw occurs in 38% of matches for both teams, while the home side led at the break in 31% of their games versus 19% for Casa Pia. In the last 5 matches Vitória has been particularly dangerous after the interval — they average 1.4 goals in second halves and win the second half in 60% of cases, whereas Casa Pia have not scored after the break in their last 5 matches (0.0) and have a 0% second-half win rate. Additionally, the home side have a better shot conversion rate (14% versus 8% for the opponents) and a higher average goals at half-time (0.63 versus 0.31), which increases the likelihood that they will stage a turnaround after the break. Although xG slightly favors Casa Pia (1.01 versus 0.91 for the hosts), the hosts’ superior efficiency and form over the last 5 matches (60% wins) tip the balance in Vitória’s favor. Given the seasonal proportion of draws for the hosts (50% draws) and the league average of approximately 2.69 goals per match, I also assign notable chances to X/X (18%) and 1/1 (20%) as alternatives.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Vitória Guimarães | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Vitória Guimarães is 900% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / game - Vitória Guimarães · 0.2 pts / game - Casa Pia
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Vitória Guimarães is 34% better for: goals scored per game.
1.22 goals / game - Vitória Guimarães · 0.91 goals / game - Casa Pia
Vitória Guimarães is 17% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.5 goals / game - Vitória Guimarães · 1.75 goals / game - Casa Pia
Vitória Guimarães scores in 69% of games (22 of 32 meczów), while Casa Pia keeps a clean sheet in 19% (6 of 32 meczów).
Casa Pia scores in 53% of games (17 of 32 meczów), while Vitória Guimarães keeps a clean sheet in 31% (10 of 32 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Vitória Guimarães
Over / Under - Casa Pia
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Casa Pia is 7% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.06 pts / game - Vitória Guimarães · 1.13 pts / game - Casa Pia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Vitória Guimarães - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 19% of games and wins 38%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Casa Pia - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 25% of games and wins 16%. Sometimes gives up a halftime lead.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 100% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -5 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (10 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Vitória Guimarães
Casa Pia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga Portugal).
Teams vs league
| Vitória Guimarães | Liga | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.72 | 2.70 | • 2.66 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 44% | 48% | • 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 47% | 54% | ▼ 47% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 31% | 29% | ▼ 19% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 66% | 70% | • 69% |
| Goal after half-time | • 78% | 79% | ▼ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Vitória Guimarães's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses against Casa Pia. Games average 0.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Vitória Guimarães vs Casa Pia?
The Liga NOS match finished Vitória Guimarães 0:1 Casa Pia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Vitória Guimarães vs Casa Pia?
Vitória Guimarães score 1.22 goals per game on average and Casa Pia 0.91. The Liga NOS average is 2.70 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 44% of Vitória Guimarães's matches and 47% of Casa Pia's.
What form are Vitória Guimarães and Casa Pia in?
Over the last 5 games Vitória Guimarães have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Casa Pia 0-1-4 (0.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Vitória Guimarães vs Casa Pia?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.