Vitória Guimarães vs Casa Pia: match statistics

Vitória Guimarães have significantly better conditions to end their winless run: at home, they average 2.22 xG and 23.5 shots per match, while Casa Pia allow opponents 1.31 xG away from home. The visitors have lost both of their away fixtures so far, failing to score a single goal in either and drawing a blank in 100% of such matches. The hosts’ home defense has been solid, conceding just 0.5 goals on average and keeping clean sheets in 50% of matches. Vitória also have a problem with finishing, converting only 2% of their shots and scoring 0.5 goals per home match, which makes a narrow home win the most likely outcome. Both teams’ recent form has been poor, but Casa Pia have already conceded 11 goals in four league matches, further strengthening Vitória’s advantage.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No: in their last 5 matches, Vitória Guimarães saw both teams score in only 20% of games, while the figure was 0% for Casa Pia. Both teams have clear attacking problems, averaging just 0.6 and 0.4 goals per match respectively over this period. Casa Pia scored only 2 goals in their last five outings, despite Vitória conceding an average of 1.4 goals, which limits the credibility of a scenario in which the visitors score. The hosts did create a higher xG, 1.58 compared with Casa Pia’s 1.11, but their low finishing efficiency makes it more likely that at least one side will fail to score. The BTTS - No prediction is also consistent with the low league-wide rate of 42%, so this outcome remains the clear preference.

Both teams are experiencing clear problems in front of goal: Vitória averaged 0.6 goals in their last 5 matches, while Casa Pia managed just 0.4. Only 20% of each team’s last five games produced at least 3 goals, strongly supporting a low-scoring outcome. However, the hosts are creating more quality chances, with an average xG of 1.58 in their last 5 appearances compared to 1.11 for the visitors, which gives them a higher projected goal tally. Casa Pia conceded 2.2 goals per match over this period, but Vitória averages just 1 shot on target per game, limiting the risk of a high-scoring result. With total expected goals at 2.20, the strongest edge lies with the Under 3.5 goals option.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time, as both teams have averaged just 0.6 points per match over their last five fixtures and lost 80% of those games, which limits confidence in a clear advantage for either side. Vitória were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, with an average of only 0.8 first-half goals; Casa Pia recorded 1.2 goals before the interval during this period, but also scored just 0.2 goals. The hosts average 1 shot on target per match with an xG of 0.98, while the visitors have 3 shots on target and an xG of 1.25, meaning Casa Pia’s edge is too small to strongly favor an away win. After the break, both teams remain inefficient, averaging 0.4 and 0.2 goals respectively across their last five matches, which supports the likelihood of the score remaining level. An alternative is a draw at half-time followed by a Casa Pia win, as Vitória concede an average of 1.4 goals per match, while Casa Pia, despite their poor form, create slightly higher-quality chances.