Vitória vs São Paulo: match statistics
Vitória vs São Paulo: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Vitória played against São Paulo in Serie A (Brazil). The game was played on April 11, 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Recent form
Vitória has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.40 points per game. São Paulo has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 1.40 points per game.
Scoring records
Vitória scores 1.00 goals per game and allows 1.56. São Paulo scores 1.50 and allows 0.70. Games in this league average 2.66 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 44% of Vitória's games and 50% of São Paulo's. The Over 2.5 rates are 33% and 30%, compared with league averages of 58% for BTTS and 48% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
São Paulo has the higher season xG average, 1.23 to 1.19 per game. Vitória takes 10.4 shots per game, while São Paulo takes 10.8.
First-half and second-half trends
Vitória leads at halftime in 22% of its games and scores 0.67 goals per game after halftime. São Paulo leads at halftime in 20% and scores 1.20 after halftime.
When the teams score
Vitória's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (3 goals). For São Paulo, it is minutes 46-60 (5 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Serie A games average 2.66 goals. Both teams score in 58% of games, and 48% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 2 previous meetings were available. The record was 1 home win, 0 draws and 1 away win. Those games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win (1). Vitória wins 75% of home matches, averages 1.5 goals scored and concedes only 0.5 goals per game. The home side averages 13 shots and 5 on target per match (conversion 12%), while São Paulo away averages 9.6 shots and 3.4 on target (conversion 10%), giving the hosts an advantage in both volume and quality of attempts. Average xG also favors Vitória: 1.45 xG per home match versus 1.08 xG for São Paulo on the road, and despite higher away possession for São Paulo (59% vs 40%) this does not translate into more goals (São Paulo scores 1.0 goals away). Vitória keeps a clean sheet in 75% of home games, whereas São Paulo records only 20% clean sheets away and fails to score in 20% of away matches, increasing the hosts’ chances of maintaining a lead. Considering similar recent form (both 1.4 points average in the last 5 matches), the superior conversion, shot volume and defensive metrics at home favor Vitória and give them roughly a 60% probability of victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Looking at the last 5 matches, Vitória had BTTS - Yes in 80% of games (4 of 5), scoring on average 2.0 goals and conceding 1.8, while São Paulo had BTTS - Yes in 40% (2 of 5) and in those five games averaged 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Seasonally the indicators are mixed: Vitória has BTTS 40% versus São Paulo 60%, and the league BTTS average is 57%, which provides a general context favoring both teams scoring. In terms of xG over the last 5 matches Vitória has xG_for 1.81 and xG_against 1.86 (total ~3.67 xG per match), while São Paulo has 1.26 and 1.10 (total 2.36), suggesting Vitória’s matches generate more chances. Additionally the home side averages 4.0 shots on target from 12.0 attempts with a 17% conversion, versus 3.4 shots on target from 9.6 attempts and 10% conversion for the away team, so Vitória has an advantage in offensive efficiency. Considering Vitória’s high BTTS rate in the last 5 (80%), the league average of 57%, and the higher xG and effectiveness of the hosts, I assess BTTS - Yes as more likely and estimate it at about 68% vs 32% for No Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Statistical analysis shows Vitória has a stronger home attack: on average 2.0 goals per match and xG 1.37 with 12.0 shots and a 17% conversion rate, while São Paulo averages 1.0 goal, xG 1.08, 9.6 shots and 10% conversion. Combining the hosts’ offense with the opponent’s defense (São Paulo concedes 0.8 goals on average and has xG against 1.15) I estimate expected goals: hosts about 1.45, visitors about 1.05, total around 2.50. A Poisson model with lambda=2.50 yields probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈ 71%, Over 2.5 ≈ 46% and Over 3.5 ≈ 24%, indicating the strongest signal for the 1.5 line. Additionally, seasonal indicators support Over 1.5 (Vitória 80% of matches >1.5, São Paulo 60%), while values for 2.5 are lower (40% and 20%), so the risk for Over 2.5 is significantly higher. As a result I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the most probable and advantageous option based on xG, shots and seasonal percentages.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Vitória averages 2.0 goals per match this season versus São Paulo’s 1.0, and as hosts concedes only 0.6 goals while averaging 2.4 points per match, giving a clear home advantage. At the break Vitória led in 40% of matches and averages 0.6 first-half goals with 0.2 conceded, whereas São Paulo averages 0.0 first-half goals and 0.6 conceded, which favors Vitória leading at the 45-minute mark. The offensive profile is supported by xG of 1.37 for the hosts versus 1.08 for the visitors, along with 12 shots vs 9.6 and 4 shots on target vs 3.4 for São Paulo, with conversion rates of 17% vs 10% — meaning the hosts are more productive and more efficient. In the second half Vitória scores on average 1.8 goals versus São Paulo’s 1.2 and has a positive second-half goal difference (+5 vs +4), so if they lead at half-time they have a high probability of sealing the win. Therefore I assign the highest probability to Vitória leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1 — 36%); the second-strongest signal is a draw at half-time turning into a home win (x/1 — 24%); and the combined probability of a São Paulo final victory is around 16% (2/1 and 2/2 together).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Vitória | São Paulo | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.24 | 0.41 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
São Paulo is 50% better for: goals scored per game.
1 goals / game - Vitória · 1.5 goals / game - São Paulo
São Paulo is 123% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.56 goals / game - Vitória · 0.7 goals / game - São Paulo
Vitória scores in 78% of games (7 of 9 meczów), while São Paulo keeps a clean sheet in 30% (3 of 10 meczów).
São Paulo scores in 80% of games (8 of 10 meczów), while Vitória keeps a clean sheet in 33% (3 of 9 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Vitória
Over / Under - São Paulo
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Vitória - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 22% of games and wins 33%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
São Paulo - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 20% of games and wins 60%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Vitória
São Paulo
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Vitória | Liga | São Paulo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.56 | 2.66 | ▼ 2.20 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 44% | 58% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 33% | 48% | ▼ 30% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 23% | ▲ 30% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 78% | 76% | ▼ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 75% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Vitória's perspective: 1 win, 0 draws and 1 loss against São Paulo. Games average 1.50 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Vitória vs São Paulo?
The Serie A match finished Vitória 2:0 São Paulo. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória and São Paulo?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Vitória won 1, São Paulo won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Vitória vs São Paulo?
Vitória score 1.00 goals per game on average and São Paulo 1.50. The Serie A average is 2.66 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 44% of Vitória's matches and 50% of São Paulo's.
What form are Vitória and São Paulo in?
Over the last 5 games Vitória have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and São Paulo 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Vitória vs São Paulo?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.