Vllaznia Shkodër vs Dinamo Tirana: match statistics

Vllaznia Shkodër, as league leader, posts impressive home metrics: 78% home wins, averaging 1.56 goals scored and only 0.56 conceded per match, with 56% clean sheets. Dinamo Tirana performs worse away — averaging 0.89 goals scored and 0.89 conceded on the road, just 28% away wins and as many as 50% goalless away matches, with a conversion rate around 7%. In terms of quality of chances Vllaznia averages 5.06 shots on target and 14.39 attempts at home with xG 1.74 and a conversion of 11%, while Dinamo away averages 3.22 shots on target, 12.11 attempts and xG 1.48, indicating a home advantage in clear chances. The last 5 matches show form issues for both sides: Vllaznia scored only 3 and conceded 7, averaging 0.6 points per game, and Dinamo scored 8 and conceded 10, averaging 0.8 points. Considering the markedly better home defense (0.56 goals conceded) and the clear superiority in shots on target (5.06 vs 3.22) and effectiveness (11% vs 7%), I rate Vllaznia with higher chances: 65% home win, 20% draw and 15% away win.

Seasonally Vllaznia has BTTS in 50% of matches, Dinamo in 39%, and the league shows 47% BTTS, providing a neutral baseline. However, in the last 5 fixtures Vllaznia has only 20% BTTS with an average 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Dinamo has 80% BTTS, averaging 1.6 scored and 2.0 conceded. From an xG perspective both teams create chances — recent home xG is 1.45 versus away xG conceded 1.53, and away xG is 1.36 versus home xG conceded 0.9, which indicates realistic scoring opportunities for both sides. Additionally the hosts average 4.67 SOT and have an 11% conversion rate versus the visitors' 3.22 SOT and 7% conversion, increasing the likelihood that Vllaznia will score at least once (BTTS - Yes).

The xG-based model estimates 1.48 expected goals for Vllaznia (home xG 1.72 vs. xG conceded 1.23) and 1.35 expected goals for Dinamo (away xG 1.48 vs. xG conceded 1.22), totalling approximately 2.83 goals. Seasonally Vllaznia have had 78% of matches over 1.5 goals, Dinamo 56%, and the league average is 2.21 goals per game — the 1.5 line is therefore significantly below the expected total of 2.83. Using a Poisson distribution with λ=2.83 I estimate Over 1.5 at ~77–78%, Over 2.5 at ~54% and Over 3.5 at ~32%; however the seasonal Over 2.5 rate is only 33% for both teams, which explains moderate uncertainty around the 2.5 line. The shooting profile supports the Over: Vllaznia average 13.39 shots and 4.67 shots on target with an 11% conversion, Dinamo 12.11 shots and 3.22 shots on target with a 7% conversion, so the home side is more efficient and increases the likelihood of at least two goals in the match. Considering higher xG, Vllaznia’s better conversion and the historical 78% Over 1.5 at home, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome: both teams have drawn at half-time in 44% of their matches (drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 44% and drawingAtHTPercentage_away = 44%), so a level score at the break is a strong signal. After the break Vllaznia have the edge: they average 0.83 second-half goals (scored_2hg_avg_home = 0.83) versus Dinamo’s 0.67 (scored_2hg_avg_away = 0.67), and in minutes 46–75 the hosts scored 6+6 = 12 goals compared to 4+1 = 5 for the visitors, which increases the likelihood of them taking the initiative after half-time. Seasonal metrics also favor the home side: Vllaznia’s season scoring average is 1.5 goals per match (seasonScoredAVG_home = 1.5) versus Dinamo’s 0.89, xG 1.72 vs 1.48, more shots on target 4.67 vs 3.22 and higher conversion 11% vs 7%, indicating better quality chances. At the same time, a short‑term warning should be noted — in the last five fixtures Dinamo scored 10 goals before half-time compared with just 4 for Vllaznia (last5_GoalsHT_overall_away = 10 vs last5_GoalsHT_overall_home = 4), so scenarios with a draw at half-time (X/1 and X/X) gain probability. In summary, the strongest signal is a half-time draw followed by a home win at full-time (HT/FT: X/1).