Vllaznia Shkodër vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë: match statistics

Vllaznia Shkodër is the favorite in this fixture due to home dominance: 74% home win rate, averaging 1.47 goals scored and just 0.63 conceded per match, and 53% clean sheets. Egnatia sit 3rd and arrive in better recent form over the last 5 matches — 3 wins, 11 goals scored and 1.8 points per game — while Vllaznia have only 1 win, 3 goals and 0.6 points per game in that period. In chance creation the hosts also look superior: 14.26 average shots and 4.95 on target at home versus 9.79 shots and 3.74 on target for the visitors away, with average xG of 1.73 for Vllaznia against 1.29 for Egnatia. Additionally, Egnatia have a higher percentage of matches without scoring on the road (37% vs 21%), which strengthens Vllaznia’s defensive edge. Considering the hosts’ better chance-creation metrics and solid home defense, but also the visitors’ good form, I forecast a Vllaznia victory.

Both teams have low seasonal BTTS rates: Vllaznia 33% and Egnatia 32%, versus a league average of 47%, indicating their matches less frequently end with goals from both sides. Additionally, both teams favor clean sheets — Vllaznia has 44% matches without conceding, Egnatia 42%, while the league records as many as 64% clean sheets — this reinforces a No Goal scenario. Goals and xG stats also point to a moderate scoring profile: seasonally Vllaznia scores 1.5 and concedes 0.83 (xG 1.6 vs 1.0 for defense), and Egnatia scores 1.0 and concedes 1.0 (xG 1.29 vs 1.22), which does not suggest a clear propensity for Goal/Goal. Although Egnatia in the last 5 matches averages 2.2 goals per game with last5 BTTS 40%, Vllaznia in their last 5 score only 0.6 and have last5 BTTS 20%, so it is realistic that the home side will not reply with a goal; therefore I prefer the No Goal outcome with higher probability.

Based on xG: home xG is 1.60 vs xG against Egnatia 1.22, yielding expected goals for Vllaznia ≈1.41; away xG 1.29 vs xG against Vllaznia 1.00 yields Egnatia ≈1.15, total ≈2.56 goals. This is above the league average 2.21 and supports a high probability of Over 1.5, especially as hosts record 67% of matches Over 1.5 this season and visitors 53%. Seasonal Over 2.5 rates are lower (33% and 32%), but Egnatia have 60% Over 2.5 in their last 5 matches and have averaged 2.2 goals in those games, so a Poisson model with λ=2.56 gives Over 2.5 ≈47%. Over 3.5 is unlikely (seasonal 22% and 21%, Poisson ≈26%), therefore the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is Over 1.5 (≈72%), hence the recommendation to play the over at the 1.5 line.

Data show Egnatia led at half-time in 37% of matches versus 33% for Vllaznia (LeadingAtHTPercentage_away 37.0 vs LeadingAtHTPercentage_home 33.0), and in the last 5 games the visitors led at the break in 60% of cases and averaged 1.4 goals by half-time (last5_leadingAtHTPercentage_overall_away 60.0; last5_scoredAVGHT_overall_away 1.4). Despite this, Vllaznia is considerably stronger after the break: they average 1.06 goals in the second half compared to 0.47 for Egnatia (scored_2hg_avg_home 1.06 vs scored_2hg_avg_away 0.47) and win second halves in 56% of matches versus just 21% for the away side (wins_2hg_percentage_home 56.0 vs wins_2hg_percentage_away 21.0). Additionally, the hosts have scored 10 goals in minutes 76–90 compared to 3 for the visitors (goals_scored_min_76_to_90_home 10.0 vs goals_scored_min_76_to_90_away 3.0) and post a higher xG per match (1.6 vs 1.29), indicating a propensity for late turnarounds (xg_for_avg_home 1.6 vs xg_for_avg_away 1.29). For these reasons the strongest scenario is HT 2 / FT 1 (visitors leading at half-time, hosts staging a turnaround and winning), which I have assigned the highest probability; other variants (draw at half-time with a later home victory or retention of the draw, and the home side leading at half-time) received smaller but moderate weights in line with seasonal half-time lead and draw rates (e.g. 33% home leads and roughly 32.5% half-time draws).