Volendam vs Feyenoord: match statistics

Feyenoord are the favorites in this matchup — they sit 2nd in the table versus Volendam’s 16th and have 61 goals this season compared to the hosts’ 30. Away, the visitors score an average of 2.00 goals with an average xG of 1.67, while Volendam at home score 1.64 with xG 1.43; Feyenoord also register more shots (14.31 vs 12.57) and shots on target (5.31 vs 4.57) and maintain higher possession (53% vs 46%). Defensively Volendam concede on average 1.36 goals at home and have conceded 11 goals in their last 5 matches, whereas Feyenoord concede 1.46 goals away and 8 goals in their last five — additionally the visitors record 31% clean sheets versus 7% for the hosts. Volendam have only 1 win in their last 5 games and average 0.8 points per game, while Feyenoord have 2 wins and 1.6 points per game; the difference in quality of chances (xG 1.67 vs 1.43) and higher finishing efficiency (14% vs 13%) favor an away victory.

I forecast BTTS - Yes, despite Feyenoord having a seasonal away BTTS rate of only 46%, because Volendam has a 73% home BTTS rate and Feyenoord has 80% BTTS in the last 5 matches. Volendam averages 2.33 goals in home matches and registers 7.47 shots on target (19.53 total), while Feyenoord as the away side averages 2.0 goals and 5.31 shots on target (14.31 total), indicating chances created by both teams. In the last 5 fixtures Volendam concedes 2.2 goals on average with xG against 2.32, and Feyenoord has xG_for 1.75 and xG against 1.3, which means Volendam is vulnerable to conceding and Feyenoord can generate 1.75 xG per match. Additionally, the Eredivisie records BTTS in 64% of matches and an average of 3.2 goals per game, and 60% of Volendam’s home matches finish over 2.5 goals, reinforcing a both-teams-to-score scenario. Therefore I assess BTTS probability at 78% versus 22% for No Goal and recommend 'Yes'.

I estimate expected goals based on the average xG of both sides: Volendam has xG_for 2.20 and Feyenoord xG_against 1.32, yielding a home forecast of (2.20+1.32)/2 = 1.76 goals. For Feyenoord similarly (xG_for 1.67 + home xG_against 1.16)/2 = 1.42 goals, giving a total of 3.18 expected goals, close to the league average of 3.2. A Poisson model with λ=3.18 produces roughly an 82.6% probability for Over 1.5 (≥2 goals) and ≈61.5% for Over 2.5 (≥3 goals), which aligns with seasonal Over 1.5 rates of 87% (Volendam) and 85% (Feyenoord) and Over 2.5 rates of 60% and 69%. Additionally, Volendam averages 19.53 shots with a 12% conversion (translating to ~2.33 goals/season) and Feyenoord 14.31 shots with 14% conversion (~2.00 goals/season), confirming the offensive potential of both teams and elevated BTTS: Volendam 73%, Feyenoord 46%. Based on this, I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal with an estimated probability of ~86%, while Over 2.5 has moderate support (~62%) and Over 3.5 appears less likely (~39%).

The most likely scenario is Volendam leading at the break and winning the match (HT/FT 1/1). Volendam led at half-time in 8 matches (53% of cases), has a higher xG per game at 2.2 versus Feyenoord’s 1.67 and averages 7.47 shots on target compared to the visitors’ 5.31, indicating an advantage in chance creation. The home side scores on average 2.33 goals per match while conceding 1.4 per game this season, whereas Feyenoord records 2.00 scored and 1.46 conceded; at half-time Volendam concedes on average 0.47 goals versus Feyenoord’s 0.92, which increases the likelihood of maintaining a lead. However, in the last five matches Volendam has won only 20% and were trailing at half-time in 75% of those games, so I reduced confidence and allocated part of the probability to draws and turnarounds. As a result I assign 40% to 1/1, 12% to a half-time draw with a home win (X/1) and smaller shares to the remaining variants (for example 14% to 2/2 as an alternative), which reflects Volendam’s advantage in xG and shots but also the risk from poor form.