Waldhof Mannheim vs Ingolstadt: match statistics

Waldhof Mannheim sit 9th and Ingolstadt 14th, but both teams have won 2 of their last 5 matches, so current form does not give the hosts a clear advantage. At home, Waldhof average 16.25 shots and 5.75 on target per match, compared with Ingolstadt’s 13.25 and 3.5 away from home, pointing to greater attacking activity from the hosts. The quality of chances also favors Waldhof: their home xG is 1.79, while Ingolstadt concede chances worth 1.94 xG on the road. The visitors have conceded 9 goals in their last 5 matches, compared with 6 for the hosts, although they have lost only 25% of their away games. Waldhof are therefore the most likely winners, but Ingolstadt’s solid away record limits the hosts’ advantage.

Both teams average 1.0 goals in their respective home and away matches, which limits confidence that both will find the net. Mannheim have recorded BTTS in 67% of their home matches, but this has occurred only once in their last 5 games, during which the team averaged 0.8 goals. Ingolstadt have BTTS in just 25% of their away matches and keep a clean sheet in 50% of them, providing a significant argument that the hosts may fail to score. On the other hand, Mannheim have not kept a clean sheet at home, and their average of 2.33 goals conceded gives the visitors a genuine chance of scoring. Therefore, a match in which only one team scores is marginally more likely, although the hosts' defensive record means this is not a strong pick.

At least two goals were scored in 100% of Waldhof’s home matches and 75% of Ingolstadt’s away matches, making Over 1.5 goals the strongest option. The hosts concede an average of 2.33 goals at home, although their average has fallen to 1.2 goals conceded over their last five matches. Both teams’ attacking potential exceeds their average of one goal scored per match: Waldhof’s home xG is 1.28, while Ingolstadt’s away xG is 1.42. Over 2.5 goals is less reliable, as it landed in 100% of Waldhof’s home matches but only 25% of Ingolstadt’s away matches. Therefore, the pick is Over 1.5 goals, with a forecast of 2.85 total goals.

Ingolstadt average 1.75 points per match compared with Waldhof’s 0.33, while the hosts have lost 67% of their matches and are yet to win in the sample analyzed. The visitors led at the break in 50% of their matches, whereas Waldhof have not led at half-time once and conceded an average of 2 goals in the first half, compared with just 0.25 for Ingolstadt. This points towards the visitors leading at the break, although half-time draws in 67% of the hosts’ matches leave a clear possibility of outcomes that start level. Waldhof have failed to score after the break in every match in the sample so far, so a comeback may prove difficult, making an Ingolstadt win at both half-time and full-time the most likely single outcome. However, caution is warranted: the visitors have conceded an average of 1.8 goals across their last five matches, so 2/2 does not have a substantial edge over the alternatives.