Wasilków vs Broń Radom: match statistics

Wasilków enters this match as the favorite due to superior form and efficiency; the hosts have scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches with 2 wins and 1 draw in that period (PPG 1.4), while Broń Radom has scored only 4 goals, failed to win any of the last 5 and has 0.4 PPG. At home Wasilków averages 1.31 goals and xG 1.20 per match, whereas the visitors on the road average 0.94 goals with xG 1.45, indicating Broń generates more expected chances (1.45 vs 1.20) but converts them less effectively. The hosts’ advantage is further supported by better conversion: 12% for Wasilków vs 7% for Broń, with average shots 8.44 vs 9.73 and shots on target 3.0 vs 3.82. Both teams have significant defensive issues — conceding on average 2.13 goals per game each, and average total goals stand at 3.44 for the hosts and 3.06 for the visitors, so I expect an open game with goals at both ends. Based on this, I tip a home win and estimate probabilities as: home 58%, draw 18%, away 24%.

I back BTTS - Yes. Home side have a seasonal BTTS rate of 63%, away side 44%, and the league records 61% of matches with both teams scoring, which provides a strong overall signal for both teams to score. Clean sheets are rare (Wasilków 19%, Broń 13%) and average goals conceded are 1.31 for Wasilków and 2.13 for Broń, so both teams regularly concede. xG confirms chance creation: Wasilków xG_for 1.65 versus Broni xG_against 1.62, and Broń xG_for 1.45 versus Wasilków xG_against 1.13; with shot conversion rates of 9% and 7% this is sufficient for both sides to have a realistic chance of scoring. In the last 5 matches Wasilków have BTTS 40% and Brón 60%, with five-match goal averages: Wasilków 1.6 scored and 2.0 conceded, Broń 0.8 scored and 1.4 conceded; taking into account the league average goals of 3.33 I assess BTTS at 68% vs 32% and choose 'yes'.

I calculated expected goals by combining the team’s attacking xG with the opponent’s defensive xG: Wasilków’s attacking xG is 1.65 and Broni’s defensive xG is 1.62, yielding 1.64 expected goals for the home side; Broni’s attacking xG is 1.45 and Wasilków’s defensive xG is 1.13, yielding 1.29 for the away side, for a total of 2.93 goals. Wasilków scored over 1.5 goals in 94% of matches, Broni in 69%, while clean sheets occurred in only 19% and 13% of cases — a strong argument for Over 1.5, which I price at 90%. A Poisson model with mean 2.93 suggests about a 56% chance of Over 2.5; considering seasonal Over 2.5 rates of 38% (Wasilków), 56% (Broni) and the league average of 65%, I raise the probability of Over 2.5 to around 60%. I assess Over 3.5 as less likely: seasonal rates are 19% and 31%, the model gives ~34%, so I assign Over 3.5 a 35% probability (Under 65%). In summary, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (recommendation) with expected 1.64 goals for Wasilków and 1.29 for Broni, totaling 2.93 goals.

Wasilków has a clear creative advantage: the home side’s xG is 1.65 versus Broń Radom’s 1.45, and they average 13.36 shots (4.86 on target) compared to the visitors’ 9.73 shots (3.82 on target). Broń concedes on average 2.13 goals per match, while Wasilków concedes 1.31, indicating a weaker away defense and greater chances for the home team in the second half. At half-time a draw is most common — Wasilków were level at the break in 7 matches (44%) and led in 5 matches (31%), so a tied score after 45 minutes is the most likely state. At the same time the hosts have strong second halves: in the last 5 fixtures they averaged 2.0 points after the break and won the second half in 60% of cases, which favors a turnaround after a half-time draw. Based on the data, the strongest signal is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1), therefore I select this variant as the most probable.