Wehen Wiesbaden vs Havelse: match statistics

Wehen Wiesbaden holds a clear statistical edge: at home they average 2.07 goals per game with an average xG of 1.87, while Havelse score only 1.33 goals on the road with an average xG of 1.54. The defensive gap is even wider — hosts concede 1.07 goals per home match, whereas visitors concede 2.47 on the road and have 72 goals conceded overall this season versus Wehen’s 36. Quality of chances favors Wehen: the home side averages 6.2 shots on target (15.93 total shots) with a conversion rate of 13%, versus 4.47 on target (13.27 attempts) and a 10% conversion for Havelse. Wehen’s weakness is recent form — just 1 win and 2 goals in their last five matches — but Havelse have 1 win and have conceded 16 goals in the same period, which points more to their defensive vulnerability. Considering the superior xG (1.87 vs 1.54), better defense (1.07 vs 2.47) and higher shooting efficiency, I assess probabilities at 68% for the home team, 17% for a draw and 15% for the away side.

Both teams have very high BTTS rates this season: Wehen Wiesbaden 69% and Havelse 87%, with an average of 78% versus the league average of 63%, providing a strong signal for BTTS - Yes. However, Wehen's poor attacking form reduces confidence — the hosts have scored just 2 goals in the last 5 matches (0.4 per match) and recorded BTTS in only 20% of that run. Havelse, by contrast, has scored 7 goals in the last 5 matches (1.4 per match), had BTTS in 80% and conceded 16 goals (3.2 per match); across the season they concede 2.47 goals on average (72 conceded), which increases the likelihood of goals at both ends. Seasonal scoring averages of 1.44 (Wehen) and 1.33 (Havelse) and xG 1.38 vs 1.54 indicate both teams create chances, and low clean sheet expected percentages of 6% and 7% further reduce the probability of a No Goal. Considering these figures, I forecast BTTS - Yes at 78% and No Goal at 22%.

I estimate expected goals at 1.79 for Wehen Wiesbaden and 1.65 for Havelse (total 3.44), averaging xG_for (1.38 and 1.54) and opponents' xG_against (2.19 and 1.76). The 3.44 total exceeds the league average of 3.14 and aligns with the fact that the home side scored 42 goals this season and the visitors 43, while Havelse conceded as many as 72 goals (last 5 matches: visitors 7 goals, home side 2). Both teams have a high BTTS rate: home 69% and away 87%, and the home team had 100% of matches with >1.5 goals at home while the visitors had 93% of season matches with >1.5, which supports a high-scoring scenario. In a Poisson model with lambda=3.44 the probability of over 1.5 is about 86%, over 2.5 about 67%, and over 3.5 about 45%, therefore the strongest and safest signal is the over on the 1.5 line.

Data show that hosts led at the break in only 13% of matches, the score was level in 31%, and hosts were trailing at half-time in 56%, so the strongest half-time signal points to the visitors leading. Nevertheless, hosts win the whole match in 25% of cases versus only 7% visitor wins, which suggests hosts frequently complete a turnaround. This is confirmed by second-half statistics: hosts have gained 17 points and average 1.06 points in second halves, while visitors have 10 points and 0.67 points per match after the break. Additionally, the second half is rich in goals — 100% of hosts’ matches had at least one goal after half-time, and for visitors this percentage is 93%; moreover both teams scored during the season in 69% and 87% of matches respectively, which favors turnarounds after the break. Considering the 56% chance that hosts will be trailing at half-time and the hosts’ stronger post-break performance, I select the 2/1 scenario (visitors lead at half-time, hosts win Full-Time) as the most likely.