Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Negele Arsi Ketema: match statistics
Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Negele Arsi Ketema: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Welwalo Adigrat Uni play Negele Arsi Ketema in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The match date is 6 May 2026 at 17:00. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Welwalo Adigrat Uni: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Negele Arsi Ketema: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Welwalo Adigrat Uni scores 0.82 and concedes 0.97 goals per match. Negele Arsi Ketema scores 0.97 and concedes 0.79. League average: 1.78 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Welwalo Adigrat Uni 46%, Negele Arsi Ketema 37%. Over 2.5: Welwalo Adigrat Uni 31%, Negele Arsi Ketema 29%. League level: BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 28%.
xG, shots and style
Negele Arsi Ketema has higher xG: 1.14 vs 1.03. Welwalo Adigrat Uni: 5.7 shots per match, Negele Arsi Ketema: 7.2.
Match halves
Welwalo Adigrat Uni: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.36. Negele Arsi Ketema: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.53.
Goals by minute
Welwalo Adigrat Uni: 31-45+ (7 goals). Negele Arsi Ketema: 76-90+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ethiopia Premier League: 1.78 goals per match, BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 28%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-0-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Match description
I back the away win (2): Negele Arsi Ketema sit 3rd versus Welwalo Adigrat Uni in 14th and possess a clear defensive edge — conceding 0.64 goals per away match compared to the hosts’ 1.07 conceded at home. The visitors also create more chances: 7.64 shots and 3.29 on target per away game with xG 1.25, while the hosts at home average 5.07 shots and 2.00 on target with xG 0.94. In the short-term trend the hosts scored 9 and conceded 7 in their last 5 (2W, 1D, 2L), whereas the visitors scored 5 and conceded 4 (1W, 4D) — both teams average 1.4 points per game over the last 5, but the visitors remain unbeaten. Additionally, the visitors have 50% clean sheets away versus 36% clean sheets for the hosts at home, and the visitors’ away goal difference is +5 compared to the hosts’ -5 at home. Considering superior xG, higher shot volume and a more stable defense, I assign the visitors a 55% chance to win, 30% chance of a draw and 15% for the home victory.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Welwalo Adigrat Uni | Negele Arsi Ketema | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Welwalo Adigrat Uni · 1.6 pts / match - Negele Arsi Ketema
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 18% better for: goals scored per match.
0.82 goals / match - Welwalo Adigrat Uni · 0.97 goals / match - Negele Arsi Ketema
Negele Arsi Ketema is 23% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.97 goals / match - Welwalo Adigrat Uni · 0.79 goals / match - Negele Arsi Ketema
Welwalo Adigrat Uni scores in 59% of matches (23 of 39 matches), while Negele Arsi Ketema keeps a clean sheet in 45% (17 of 38 matches).
Negele Arsi Ketema scores in 63% of matches (24 of 38 matches), while Welwalo Adigrat Uni keeps a clean sheet in 36% (14 of 39 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Welwalo Adigrat Uni
Over / Under — Negele Arsi Ketema
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 20% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.21 pts / match - Welwalo Adigrat Uni · 1.45 pts / match - Negele Arsi Ketema
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Welwalo Adigrat Uni - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 26%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Negele Arsi Ketema - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 0% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 100% |
| No goal | 40% | 100% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goli). Concedes most in 0-15 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Welwalo Adigrat Uni
Negele Arsi Ketema
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Welwalo Adigrat Uni | Liga | Negele Arsi Ketema | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 1.79 | 1.78 | • 1.76 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 46% | 40% | ▼ 37% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 31% | 28% | • 29% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 36% | 40% | ▲ 45% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 64% | 56% | ▼ 53% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 44% | 59% | ▲ 66% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Welwalo Adigrat Uni 0 - 0 - 1 Negele Arsi Ketema. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Negele Arsi Ketema?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Welwalo Adigrat Uni 1:2 Negele Arsi Ketema. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Negele Arsi Ketema?
Welwalo Adigrat Uni score 0.82 goals per game on average and Negele Arsi Ketema 0.97. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.78 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 28% of games. Both teams score in 46% of Welwalo Adigrat Uni's matches and 37% of Negele Arsi Ketema's.
What form are Welwalo Adigrat Uni and Negele Arsi Ketema in?
Over the last 5 games Welwalo Adigrat Uni have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Negele Arsi Ketema 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Negele Arsi Ketema?
The statistical background for Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Negele Arsi Ketema — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.