Werder Bremen vs Augsburg: match statistics

Augsburg sit 3rd, remaining unbeaten after three league matches (2 wins and a draw) and scoring 9 goals while conceding just 3, whereas Werder have a 1-1-1 record and a 5:6 goal difference. The visitors are also in better form: they have won 3 of their last five matches and scored 11 goals, while the hosts have recorded 2 wins and conceded 7 goals. Away from home, Augsburg average 17 shots per match compared with Werder’s 12 at home, with comparable conversion rates of 24% and 25%, respectively, while their xG stands at 1.83 versus 1.44 for the hosts. Werder have won their only home match so far, scoring 3 goals, but allowed their opponents an xG of 2.24, which, combined with Augsburg’s xG of 1.83, points to an open game. Both teams concede an average of 1 goal in the respective home–away split and neither has kept a clean sheet, but the higher volume of chances and more consistent form favor the visitors.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as Augsburg have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches so far, compared with 50% for Werder, against a league average of 59%. Neither team has had a match without scoring, while Augsburg average 4.0 goals and Werder 2.5. In their last five fixtures, the teams scored 1.6 and 2.2 goals respectively, while conceding 1.4 goals per match each. Their attacking potential is also confirmed by the xG figures: 1.90 for Werder and 1.83 for Augsburg, while their defenses allow high opposition xG values of 2.05 and 2.53 respectively. BTTS - Yes is the more likely pick, although Werder’s 50% clean-sheet rate is the main factor reducing confidence in this scenario.

Both teams have very clear goal profiles: in the current campaign, Werder average 2.5 goals per match, while Augsburg average as many as 4.0. Every one of their matches so far has gone over 1.5 and 2.5 goals, with Augsburg recording both teams to score in 100% of their fixtures. Data from their last five appearances continues to support an open game script, as Werder score 1.6 goals and concede 1.4, while Augsburg score 2.2 and concede 1.4. The xG figures are particularly significant: Augsburg create an average of 1.83 xG, while Werder’s defense allows opponents 2.05 xG, further strengthening the forecast for an away goal. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected 3.55 goals give this line a substantial edge even in a more cautious match scenario.

The strongest scenario is Werder leading at the break and Augsburg winning after the final whistle, corresponding to the HT/FT pick X/2. Bremen led at half-time in 1 of their 2 home matches so far, while Augsburg were trailing at the break in their away outing, supporting a potential turnaround. The visitors have won 100% of their matches in the current sample and average 4.0 goals scored away from home, while Werder concede an average of 1.0. The second half is crucial: Augsburg average 4.0 goals scored after the break and concede none, while in their last five matches they have scored 2.0 goals after half-time and conceded just 0.4. Werder are also dangerous after the interval, but their recent form stands at 2 wins in 5 matches compared with Augsburg’s 3 victories, making the visitors’ late-game advantage appear more reliable.