West Ham United vs Queens Park Rangers: match statistics

West Ham are the favorites: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 16 goals across those games, while Queens Park Rangers have managed just 1 win and scored 5 goals over the same period. At home, the hosts average 3.5 goals per match, with an xG of 2.11; away from home, the visitors average 1.5 goals with an xG of 1.43. West Ham’s advantage in chance creation is also reflected in their average of 7.75 shots on target at home, compared with Queens Park Rangers’ 4.25 away. The visitors can defend well, however: they concede an average of just 0.75 goals away from home and have avoided defeat in all 4 of those matches, increasing the likelihood of a draw. Even so, the hosts’ attacking efficiency and the gap in recent results point to a West Ham victory.

BTTS - Yes landed in 50% of West Ham matches and 75% of Queens Park Rangers matches, while both teams recorded a 60% rate across their last 5 games. West Ham create chances at home with an average xG of 2.27 and register 6.5 shots on target per match, which supports their chances of scoring despite averaging just 1.0 goal. Queens Park Rangers score an average of 1.5 goals away from home, while West Ham concede 1.0 at home, so the visitors also have a genuine chance of finding the net. A note of caution is that the hosts have failed to score in 50% of their home matches; however, their 16 goals in their last 5 games strengthen the case for both sides to score.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: West Ham have scored 16 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 3.2, while Queens Park Rangers have scored 5 over the same period. At home, the hosts average 2.27 xG and 6.5 shots on target per match, indicating greater attacking potential than their current average of 1.0 goals scored. The visitors average 1.5 goals away from home, while the hosts concede 1.0 at home; meanwhile, at least 2 goals were scored in 75% of Queens Park Rangers’ away matches. The projected total of 2.80 goals supports Over 1.5, although only 50% of West Ham’s home matches have gone over this line, so confidence is not exceptionally high.

The strongest case is for West Ham to lead at the break and hold their advantage through to the final whistle: in their last five matches, the hosts were ahead at half-time twice, while Queens Park Rangers were behind twice. Over that period, West Ham averaged 1.4 goals before half-time compared with the visitors’ 0.4, strengthening the case for an early lead. The hosts’ average xG of 2.27 against their opponents’ 1.43, along with three wins in their last five matches compared with QPR’s one, also supports a home win. After the break, West Ham won the second half in four of their last five matches, giving them a solid basis to preserve or extend their advantage. The risk to this pick is a level score at half-time: QPR had drawn at the break in three of the four matches covered by the season statistics, so a draw at half-time followed by a home win remains a close alternative.