Weymouth vs Chertsey Town: match statistics

Chertsey Town appears to be the favorite: they have 18 wins this season versus Weymouth’s 12 and a superior goal record of 62 scored to 50 conceded, while Weymouth have 48 scored and 68 conceded (goal difference +12 vs -20). At home Weymouth average 1.15 goals scored and 1.15 conceded with 40% of matches without scoring, whereas Chertsey away also average 1.15 goals scored but concede 1.3 and have a lower percentage of scoreless matches (30%). The quality of chances favors the visitors: Chertsey average 11.2 shots per game with 4.4 on target and a conversion rate of 13%, and their average away xG is 1.42 versus opponents’ xG of 1.54. In the last 5 matches Chertsey have scored 7 and conceded 5, while Weymouth have 4 scored and 6 conceded with an identical points-per-game of 1.4, which indicates better short-term effectiveness for the visitors. Additionally Chertsey win 40% of away fixtures versus Weymouth’s 25% home win rate, with the same clean sheet percentage of 30%, so I assign a higher probability to an away victory.

Seasonal BTTS rates are 55% for Weymouth and 50% for Chertsey, while the league average for BTTS is 59%, which favors a scenario where both teams score. Seasonal xG are 1.39 (Weymouth) and 1.42 (Chertsey), while xG against are 1.28 and 1.54, suggesting both sides create around 1.4 expected chances, with Chertsey more prone to conceding chances. Chertsey have scored 62 goals this season, whereas Weymouth have conceded 68, and Weymouth averages 5.31 shots on target at 19% conversion compared to the visitors' 4.4 and 13%, so opportunities for both sides are realistic. In the last 5 matches Weymouth have only 20% BTTS and average 0.8 goals scored, and Chertsey 40% BTTS and 1.4 goals, which introduces some risk but does not eliminate the likelihood of both teams scoring. Considering the above figures (seasonal BTTS 55%/50%, league 59%, xG ~1.4 and the 62 scored vs 68 conceded differential), I assess the chance of BTTS at around 60% and recommend backing "Yes" (BTTS - Yes).

xG and defensive metrics indicate a goals match: Weymouth has an attacking xG of 1.39, while Chertsey concedes on average 1.54 xG to opponents, yielding an estimated ~1.47 goals for the home side; similarly Chertsey attacking xG 1.42 versus Weymouth opponent xG 1.28 => ~1.35 for the away side, total ≈2.82 goals. This aligns with seasonal figures — Weymouth scores 1.95 goals on average with 5.31 shots on target, Chertsey 1.15 goals and 4.4 shots on target, and the league records 3.15 goals per game. Seasonal indicators also show a propensity for overs: Weymouth has 60% of matches Over 2.5 goals, Chertsey 45%, and Both Teams To Score occurs in 55%/50% of matches (home/away). Accordingly I assess probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈ 86%, Over 2.5 ≈ 62% and Over 3.5 ≈ 35% — consistent with seasonal 75%/70% for Over 1.5 and 45%/25% for Over 3.5. The strongest bet signal is Over 1.5: high seasonal frequency of matches above 1.5 and a combined xG ≈2.82 give clear edge to this market.

I select the 1/1 scenario (Weymouth leading at half-time and winning) as the most likely: the home side average 0.85 goals by half-time versus Chertsey’s 0.45 and have 31 first-half goals compared to the visitors’ 17. Weymouth average 5.31 shots on target and maintain a 19% conversion rate versus Chertsey’s 4.4 shots and 13% conversion, while their goals per match are 1.95 versus 1.15, all supporting their dominance. After the break, the hosts score an average of 1.1 goals and concede 0.5, whereas Chertsey score 0.7 and concede 0.9; Weymouth earn an average of 2.0 points in second halves versus 1.2 for the visitors, so they have the advantage in holding a lead. In the last five matches Weymouth led at the break in 40% (2 of 5) games, with Chertsey only 20% (1 of 5), therefore the 1/1 scenario is the strongest signal from the available data.