Wigry Suwałki vs Broń Radom: match statistics

Wigry Suwałki are demonstrating impressive form at home with a 67% win rate in home matches and a positive goal difference of +16. The hosts average 2.42 goals per home game, with only 8% of matches failing to score, which indicates an effective offensive unit. Broń Radom have very poor away results – only 25% wins, a high 58% of matches without scoring a goal, and a negative goal difference of -16. The visitors concede an average of 2.33 goals per away game and have kept only 8% clean sheets, confirming defensive issues. Taking into account Wigry's advantage in possession (53% vs 45%), higher shot conversion rate (20% vs 5%), and the significant disparity in current form and efficiency, I strongly favor a home victory.

Wigry have a high chance of scoring as Broń concede an average of 2.33 goals per match, have only 8% clean sheets, and an xG against of 1.61. However, the key inhibitor for BTTS is the visitors' offense: Broń score an average of 1.0 goal (0.6 in their last 5 matches), have a low shot conversion rate of 5%, and as many as 58% of their matches without a goal (FTS). Wigry defensively look more solid over the season (1.09 goals conceded, xGA 1.05), which further hinders the visitors from scoring. The trend from the last 5 matches is clearly anti-BTTS (with only 20% BTTS for both teams), despite the league generally being high-scoring. In summary: the most likely scenario is a goal from Wigry and no goal from Broń, therefore I prefer BTTS: NO.

The expected goals model indicates Wigier's offensive advantage: 1.71 xG per home match versus the 1.61 xG conceded by Broń, supporting a forecast of approximately 1.8 goals for the hosts. Broń has a very poor defense this season (2.33 goals conceded per match, only 8% clean sheets, and 92% of matches conceding a goal), which significantly boosts the chances for at least two goals in the match. Simultaneously, their attack is less consistent (1.00 goal per match and as much as 58% FTS), and in the last 5 matches they scored an average of 0.6 goals, limiting the probability of high lines. Wigier's seasonal statistics strongly support the goal base: 100% of matches with over 1.5, while simultaneously frequent under 3.5 (82%), which indicates a typical distribution of 2–3 goals. Wigier's high averages for shots and shots on target (15.11 and 5.56) combined with Broń's poor conversion rate (5%) further suggest the hosts will be the main source of goals. Therefore, the strongest signal is over 1.5 as the most probable scenario with simultaneously moderate risk for over 2.5.

Wigry have a clear qualitative advantage: higher PPG (1.73 vs 1.00), better xG (1.71 vs 1.41), and significantly superior shot production (15.11 and 5.56 SOT vs 10.0 and 3.38). Broń concedes a lot of goals (2.33 per match) and has a low clean sheet percentage (8%) along with a high FTS (58%), which increases the probability of the hosts winning in the second half. At the same time, Wigry often draw at the break (55% of matches), and the goal tempo in the first half is moderate (AVGHT 1.18), favoring the HT = X scenario. In the first half, Broń often fails to score (FTS HT 67%) and concedes an average of 1.08 goals, but recently they have been holding the score until the break more frequently (80% HT draws in the last5), further strengthening X at HT. After the break, Wigry's advantage increases, as Broń has a poor second-half record (57% defeats) and a very negative GD_2hg (-12), which is why the X/1 variant is the most data-consistent.