Wigry Suwałki vs ŁKS Łódź II: match statistics

Wigry Suwałki are the favorites: they have scored 12 goals in the last 5 matches (2.4 per game) and won 4 of those 5 matches, while ŁKS Łódź II has scored only 4 goals (0.8 per game) and failed to record a win (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses). Defensively Wigry conceded 5 goals in their last five matches (1.0 per game), whereas the visitors conceded 11 goals (2.2 per game), indicating a clear home advantage in defensive stability. The points differential is significant: the hosts average 2.4 points per game over the last 5 fixtures, compared to just 0.2 points per game for ŁKS II, confirming the form trend (’wwwlw’ vs ’ldlll’). Considering the hosts’ superior attacking efficiency (2.4 vs 0.8 goals per game) and the visitors’ weak defense (2.2 conceded on average), the most likely outcome is a home victory.

In the last 5 matches Wigry scored 12 goals (2.4 per match) and conceded 5 (1.0), while ŁKS II scored 4 goals (0.8 per match) and conceded 11 (2.2 per match). BTTS - Yes occurred in 60% of Wigry’s matches and in 80% of ŁKS II’s matches over this period, yielding a strong signal that both teams frequently produce Goal/Goal outcomes (an average 70% when combining these two indicators). xG values confirm this dynamic: Wigry have xG 1.82 per match versus xG against ŁKS II of 1.85, and ŁKS II have xG 1.34 versus xG against Wigry of 1.52, suggesting realistic scoring potential from both sides. Although ŁKS II form ('ldlll') is weaker than Wigry ('wwwlw'), ŁKS’s high number of goals conceded (11 in 5 matches) increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. Based on this I assess BTTS - Yes as more probable and assign it a 75% probability versus 25% for No Goal, therefore the recommendation is: BTTS - Yes.

In the last 5 matches Wigry Suwałki scored an average of 2.4 goals per game, while ŁKS Łódź II averaged 0.8 goals and conceded 2.2 goals on average. Home xG is 1.82 and xG against the visitors is 1.85, yielding roughly 1.84 expected goals for Wigry; meanwhile the visitors’ xG is 1.34 and xG against the hosts is 1.52, suggesting about 1.43 expected goals for ŁKS II, totaling ~3.27 goals. Using this total in a Poisson distribution produces a high probability of over 1.5 goals (~84%) and over 2.5 goals (~63%), while over 3.5 goals is around 41%. Additionally, 80% of Wigry’s last 5 matches finished over 2.5 goals, and BTTS occurred in 60% of home matches and 80% of the visitors’ matches, which supports a multi-goal scenario. Based on this, I recommend betting on Over 1.5 as the strongest statistical signal.

Form and statistical analysis indicate a clear advantage for the home side. Wigry Suwałki led at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches (80%) and won 4 of 5 games (80%), while ŁKS II have 0% wins and 80% losses in this run. In first halves Wigry average 2.0 goals and concede none (average goals conceded by halftime 0.0), whereas the visitors score 0.6 and concede 1.4 on average by the break. Additionally, the average goals per game in the last 5 matches is 2.4 for the hosts versus 0.8 for the visitors, and the average points at halftime are 2.6 versus 0.4, which confirms Wigry’s control before the interval. For these reasons the most likely Half-Time/Full-Time scenario is the home side leading at the break and ultimately winning the match (1/1), which I assign a 55% probability.