Wigry Suwałki vs Lomza: match statistics

I back the home win. Wigry Suwałki score an average of 2.38 goals per home match and win 69% of home fixtures; in the last 5 games they have a record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (10 points, 2.0 PPG). Łomża has a better season record (16 wins vs 14 for Wigry) and 58 goals scored compared to the hosts' 46, generating on average 12.6 shots and 5.5 on target per game, but their conversion rate is lower (14% versus Wigry’s 20%). Defensively the visitors are solid (0.92 goals conceded away and 42% clean sheets), however in the last 5 matches they conceded only 4 goals versus Wigry’s 7, which suggests the hosts will be able to capitalize on their chances with superior finishing. Given the hosts’ higher finishing efficiency and lower share of goalless games (FTS 8% vs 25% for Łomża) I give a slight edge to Wigry.

The dominant signal for BTTS - Yes is the league-wide rate of such outcomes — 64% of matches end with goals from both teams — and Wigry’s solid profile: season BTTS 54% and 60% in the last 5. Both teams create scoring opportunities: Wigry have xG 1.83, average 2.62 goals and 15.22 shots (6.67 on target), while Łomża have xG 1.67, average 2.0 goals and 12.6 shots (5.5 on target). Offsetting this is Łomża’s pronounced reduction in BTTS form — just 20% in their last five fixtures — and their improved defense over the last 5 (0.8 conceded vs season 0.92). Additionally, both sides display relatively high clean sheet rates: Wigry 46% and Łomża 42%, which increases the single-match risk of No Goal. Overall, considering league BTTS 64%, offensive xG of 1.83 and 1.67 and Wigry’s 60% BTTS in L5, I assess BTTS probability at 60% vs 40% and recommend a 'BTTS - Yes' bet.

Wigry Suwałki score on average 2.62 goals per match this season, Łomża 2.00, and both teams generate a high volume of chances (shots on target 6.67 vs 5.5), which favors goals. xG data gives 1.59 expected goals for the home side (attacking xG 1.83 vs opponent defense xG against 1.35) and 1.40 for the visitors (attacking xG 1.67 vs home defense 1.13), totaling 2.99 expected goals. Historically Wigry have 100% of matches over 1.5 goals, Łomża 83%, while season over 2.5 rates are 69% and 50% respectively, with the league average at 3.41 goals/match — this strengthens the signal for Over 2.5 goals. In the last 5 matches Over 2.5 for the home team is 100% and for the away team 80%, therefore the best line to play is Over 2.5. The higher line of 3.5 has weaker support (seasonOver35 31% for Wigry and 25% for Łomża), so I assess Over 3.5 at around 35% probability and do not recommend it as the primary selection.

The hosts led at the break in 7 of their home appearances to date (54%), while the visitors were leading at half-time in only 2 matches (17%), which gives a clear advantage to Wigry after 45 minutes. This is supported by goals and chance-creation metrics — the hosts score 1.08 goals by half-time versus 0.58 for the away side, have an xG of 1.83 versus 1.67, 15.22 shots compared to 12.6 and 6.67 on target versus 5.5, so they are more offensively intense. Over the full match the hosts win 69% of games and have a better points-per-game average 2.23 vs 1.92, while in the second half they average 1.54 goals and 92% of matches see goals after the break, which increases the likelihood of maintaining and extending a lead. On that basis the scenario of the hosts leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1) is deemed the strongest signal and I assign it a 43% probability; the next most likely outcome is a draw at half-time with a hosts’ victory (X/1) at 13% probability. Options where the visitors lead at half-time or complete a turnaround (e.g. 2/2 at 10% or 2/X at 7%) are treated as less likely due to their lower half-time goal average of 0.58 and weaker chance-creation output (xG 1.67).