Wigry Suwałki vs Wisła Płock II: match statistics

Wigry Suwałki are slight favorites: they have won 3 of their 5 home matches, while Wisła Płock II have won 2 of their 5 away games. Both teams average 2 goals per match in these conditions, and their average xG figures are similar — 1.50 for the hosts compared with 1.54 for the visitors — so a clear advantage in chance quality is difficult to expect. Wigry have the edge defensively: they concede an average of 1.2 goals at home and have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their matches, whereas Wisła concede 1.8 goals away and keep a clean sheet in 20%. The visitors record more shots on target away from home than the hosts do at home, 5.25 compared with 4.5 per match, and Wigry have conceded as many as 12 goals in their last 5 games, which limits confidence in the prediction. Both teams have won 2 of their last 5 matches, so home advantage and a better defensive record over the season point only to a moderate lean towards the hosts.

The strongest signal in favor of both teams scoring is that BTTS - Yes landed in 100% of Wigry’s home matches and 80% of Wisła Płock II’s away games. Neither team has failed to score in a match under these conditions so far, and the hosts average 2.4 goals at home compared with 2.0 goals for the visitors away. The defenses also give opponents chances: Wigry concede an average of 1.6 goals and Wisła II 1.8, with the hosts allowing an xG of 1.86 compared with 1.49 for the visitors. In their last 5 matches, Wigry conceded an average of 2.4 goals and Wisła II 1.6; BTTS landed in 80% and 60% of those games, respectively. The case for BTTS - Yes is therefore clear, although the fact that Wisła II kept a clean sheet in 20% of their away matches means it cannot be considered a certainty.

In the teams’ matches to date, at least 2 goals have been scored every time, making Over 1.5 goals the strongest signal in the data. Wigry average 2.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Wisła Płock II score 2.0 and concede 1.8, pointing to goal-scoring potential at both ends. The hosts’ last 5 matches averaged 4.6 goals, compared with 3.2 in the visitors’ matches; their games went Over 2.5 goals in 60% and 60% of cases, respectively. The projected total of 3.6 goals also supports higher lines, but Over 1.5 offers a clearer edge because it does not require at least three goals.

Wigry are favorites, averaging 2.2 points per match compared with Wisła’s 1.4, and winning 60% of their matches versus the visitors’ 40%. The hosts’ advantage in the first halves of their last five matches supports the case for them to lead at the break: they were ahead in three of those games, while Wisła did not lead once and averaged just 0.4 goals. After half-time, Wigry score an average of 1.4 goals, while Wisła concede 1.2, increasing the likelihood that the hosts would hold on to any lead. A half-time draw remains a significant possibility, as the visitors went into the break level in four of their last five matches. Even so, the combination of the hosts’ stronger record and Wisła’s weaker starts makes a Wigry half-time lead followed by a full-time win the most likely single HT/FT outcome.