Wil vs Aarau: match statistics

Both teams have lost both matches played so far in their respective roles, but Aarau hold a clear edge in chance creation: their average away xG stands at 1.53 compared with Wil’s 1.27 at home. The visitors also average 4 shots on target per match, while the hosts manage only 1.5, despite identical averages of 13.5 total shots. Wil concede an average of 2 goals at home, have yet to keep a clean sheet, and have already conceded 13 goals in 4 matches this season. Aarau also have defensive issues, allowing opponents an average of 2.5 goals away from home, but Wil have failed to score in 50% of their home matches and average just 0.5 goals per game there. Form over the last five games is marginally better for Wil, who have won twice, but Aarau’s superior chance quality and accuracy point towards a narrow away win.

The case for goals from both sides is strengthened by their current form: BTTS occurred in 60% of Wil’s last five matches and in as many as 80% of Aarau’s games. During this period, Wil averaged 2.4 goals scored but conceded 3.0, while Aarau scored 1.4 and allowed opponents 2.0 goals per match. The hosts should have a particularly good chance of scoring, as Aarau concede an average of 2.5 goals per game this season and have kept no clean sheets. The main risk to the pick is Aarau’s season-long attacking efficiency: they average only 0.5 goals and failed to score in 50% of their matches. However, 1.53 xG and an average of 4 shots on target indicate that they create enough chances. With neither side keeping clean sheets and Wil’s defense having looked weaker recently, a goal for each team is the more likely scenario.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have surpassed this line in 100% of their matches so far this season. In their last five games, Wil averaged 2.4 goals scored but also conceded as many as 3.0, clearly favoring an open game. Over the same sample, Aarau scored 1.4 goals and conceded 2.0, while 80% of matches involving each team ended with at least three goals. The hosts should have particularly favorable conditions for scoring, as Aarau concede an average of 2.5 goals per match, with neither side keeping a clean sheet. The estimated 3.35 goals also point to potential value on Over 2.5, but Over 1.5 provides a clearly greater safety margin.

Wil have started their home campaign very strongly: they have won both matches, taking a lead at the break in each, scoring an average of 1.0 goal before half-time and conceding none during that period. Aarau have lost both away matches, failed to score before half-time in either, and conceded an average of 1.0 goal in the first half. Wil’s superiority in finishing is also clear over the full match: the hosts score an average of 1.5 goals, compared with just 0.5 for Aarau, while the visitors concede as many as 2.5 goals per game. Although the last five matches point to greater variability, Wil have scored 1.4 goals after the break in those games, while Aarau have conceded an average of 1.6 in that period, supporting the expectation that the hosts will maintain their advantage. The most likely scenario is therefore a Wil lead at half-time followed by a victory at the final whistle: HT/FT 1/1.