Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Wisła Kraków II: match statistics

Wiślanie Jaśkowice hold an advantage derived from 14 wins this season versus Wisła Kraków II’s 9 wins and a stronger recent run — in the last five matches the hosts scored 9 goals and average 1.8 points per game, while the visitors scored 7 goals and average 1.4 points per game. The key difference is defense: the hosts concede 1.46 goals at home on average with an average xG against of 1.13, whereas Wisła II concedes 2.17 goals away with xG against 1.47, indicating Wiślanie are better at limiting the quality of chances. In attack both teams are dangerous — the hosts score 1.46 goals at home on average (xG 1.65), and the visitors score 1.83 goals away (xG 1.53), so Wiślanie create marginally better-quality chances while Wisła II demonstrate higher finishing efficiency. The hosts control the game more often (55% possession vs 49%) and produce more shots per match (12.33 vs 11.14), but the visitors are less likely to be shut out on the road (share of matches without scoring 8% for the visitors vs 23% for the hosts), so I expect goals from both sides. On that basis I favor a Wiślanie Jaśkowice win, but the projection anticipates an open, multi-goal match, so I assign a moderate probability to a draw and an away win.

I project BTTS - Yes as more likely (72% vs 28%) because both teams show strong seasonal metrics: Wiślanie Jaśkowice BTTS 54% and Wisła Kraków II BTTS 75%, versus a league average of 57%. Wiślanie average 2.08 goals scored and concede 1.46 per match, while Wisła II score 1.83 and concede 2.17, indicating both sides regularly score and concede. This is supported by xG and shot data: attacking xG 1.68 vs 1.53, xG against 1.33 vs 1.47, and average on-target shots 5.62 vs 5.43 — real scoring opportunities on both ends. Additionally, 69% and 67% of these teams’ matches go over 2.5, and the over + BTTS combination occurs in 54% and 67% of games, increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. I remain moderately cautious because in the last 5 matches Wisła II has BTTS only 40% and concedes an average of 0.8 goals, which slightly lowers confidence; nonetheless, the aggregate seasonal metrics, xG and shot statistics lead me to pick Yes.

I estimate 1.58 xG for Wiślanie Jaśkowice (home attack avg xG 1.68 vs away defense xG 1.47) and 1.43 xG for Wisła Kraków II (1.53 vs 1.33), totaling 3.01 expected goals. Season averages show the hosts score 2.08 and concede 1.46, while the visitors score 1.83 and concede 2.17, indicating both teams have attacking potential and defensive vulnerabilities. Both sides registered Over 1.5 in 85% and 83% of matches this season (avg 84%), so I assign an 84% probability to Over 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 also looks strong: season rates 69% and 67% (avg 68%), and Wiślanie have 80% Over 2.5 in their last 5 matches, hence a 70% forecast for Over 2.5; additionally 54% and 75% of matches end with both teams scoring, so the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5.

Wiślanie led at the break in 71% of their matches (leadingAtHTPercentage_home = 71, leadingAtHT_home = 5) and average 1.14 goals in the first half while conceding only 0.29 (scoredAVGHT_home 1.14 vs concededAVGHT_home 0.29), which strongly suggests a home lead at Half-Time. Over the full match the hosts average 2.08 goals scored and 1.46 conceded (seasonScoredAVG_home 2.08, seasonConcededAVG_home 1.46), whereas Wisła’s reserves record 1.83 scored and 2.17 conceded (seasonScoredAVG_away 1.83, seasonConcededAVG_away 2.17), so maintaining the hosts’ victory appears more likely. However, the visitors are active after the break — they average 1.29 second-half goals and have 86% of matches with at least one goal after Half-Time (scored_2hg_avg_away 1.29, over05_2hg_percentage_away 86), which gives a real chance to force a draw or produce a turnaround. Considering xG as well (1.68 for the hosts versus 1.53 for the visitors), I assign the highest probability to the 1/1 Half-Time/Full-Time scenario (48%), with 1/X (14%) and 1/2 (7%) as possible alternatives.