Yanbian Longding vs Shenzhen Juniors: match statistics

Yanbian Longding are unbeaten in their last five matches, collecting 11 points and scoring 9 goals, while Shenzhen Juniors have managed just 6 points and only 4 goals. At home, the hosts concede an average of 0.78 goals per match, clearly fewer than the visitors do away from home, where their average is 1.56 goals conceded. The quality of chances created also favors Yanbian: their home xG stands at 1.45, with opponents recording 1.04 xG, while Shenzhen produce 1.29 xG away from home and allow their opponents 1.54. The visitors can be effective on the road, averaging 2 goals scored, but they have failed to find the net in 44% of their away matches, which, combined with the hosts’ solid defensive record, limits their chances. Yanbian’s high 67% draw rate at home increases the likelihood of a closely contested match; however, current form and the defensive advantage point to the hosts.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No, as Yanbian Longding keep a clean sheet in 63% of their matches, while Shenzhen Juniors fail to score in 44% of games. The hosts concede just 0.88 goals per match on average and have allowed only 3 goals in their last five appearances, or 0.6 per game. Over the same period, Shenzhen averaged 0.8 goals scored and recorded BTTS in only 20% of matches, casting doubt on their chances of scoring against a solid opposing defense. The teams’ seasonal BTTS rates—25% for Yanbian and 33% for Shenzhen—are significantly below the league average of 54%. The hosts should create chances with an average xG of 1.65 and 5.13 shots on target, but the more likely scenario is that at least one team, primarily the visitors, will fail to score.

Yanbian Longding have a very solid defense: they concede just 0.88 goals per game this season and only 0.6 over their last five matches, with an xG against of 0.91. Shenzhen Juniors have recently scored just 0.8 goals per match, despite averaging 1.73 xG across their last five outings, suggesting limited finishing efficiency. The hosts are also not a team involved in consistently high-scoring games, as 75% of their matches this season have ended with a maximum of two goals, while 87% have not exceeded three goals. Although the visitors have seen at least two goals in 78% of their matches, they face a team that has kept a clean sheet in 63% of games. The projected total of 2.35 goals therefore gives the Under 3.5 goals line a clear advantage.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Yanbian Longding win, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 5 of their 8 matches, representing 63% of cases. Shenzhen Juniors have historically started matches well and led at the break in 44% of games, but in their last five appearances they have failed to score a single first-half goal, while conceding an average of 0.8 goals in that period. After the break, Yanbian average 1.0 goal scored and just 0.5 conceded; over their last five matches, these figures stand at 1.2 and 0.0, respectively. The hosts are also clearly in better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, remain unbeaten, and average 1.8 goals scored, whereas the visitors have won only 1 of 5 games and average 0.8 goals. Yanbian's advantage is further supported by their higher xG, 1.65 compared with 1.29, as well as their stronger defensive record across the season, conceding an average of 0.88 goals compared with Shenzhen's 1.56.