Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kashima Antlers: match statistics

Yokohama F. Marinos have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 2.2 per game, while Kashima Antlers have scored 6 goals over the same period. The hosts also boast a significantly tighter defense, conceding just 3 goals compared with the visitors’ 6. Kashima have a slightly better points return in this run, with 3 wins, a draw and a defeat, averaging 2.0 points per match compared with their opponents’ 1.6. However, Yokohama’s goal difference advantage stands at +8 versus Kashima’s zero, which, combined with home advantage, points to a higher probability of a home win, although a draw remains a realistic outcome.

The stronger signal points toward BTTS - No, as both teams scored in only 20% of Kashima’s last five matches and 40% of Yokohama’s. Yokohama defended effectively during this period, conceding just 0.6 goals per match on average and only 3 goals in total, which limits the prospects of the visitors finding the net. Kashima averaged 1.2 goals, with an xG of 1.15, while the hosts allowed their opponents an xG of 1.07. The hosts should, however, have good conditions to score: they averaged 2.2 goals, while Kashima’s defense conceded 1.2 goals and allowed an xG of 1.44. The most likely scenario is therefore one in which Yokohama scores, but at least one team—above all Kashima—fails to find the net.

Data from the last 5 matches points to Yokohama’s solid defensive record, with only 3 goals conceded—an average of 0.6 per match—while Kashima averaged 1.2 goals scored. The hosts are in better offensive form, averaging 2.2 goals, but their matches produced an average of 2.8 goals, compared with 2.4 in Kashima’s games. The underlying chance creation also suggests a result closer to 2–3 goals: Yokohama’s xG stands at 1.61, while Kashima concedes 1.44 xG; Kashima, meanwhile, generates 1.15 xG against 1.07 xG allowed by their opponents. Only 40% of Yokohama’s recent matches and 20% of Kashima’s finished Over 2.5 goals, while the low percentage of both teams’ matches featuring goals—40% and 20%, respectively—limits the risk of an open, high-scoring game. The Under 3.5 goals line therefore offers a clear edge, as the projected total of 2.50 goals leaves a comfortable margin for typical scenarios such as 1:1, 2:0, or 2:1.

Yokohama F. Marinos have averaged 2.2 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded over their last five matches, while Kashima Antlers have recorded averages of 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The home side have started matches significantly better, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 0.2 conceded before half-time, compared with just 0.2 goals per match for the visitors. Yokohama have led at the break in 40% of their recent appearances, whereas Kashima have been level at half-time in as many as 60%, which also increases the significance of the draw-at-half-time and home-win scenario. After the interval, the hosts still look solid, averaging 1.4 goals and avoiding defeat in any second half across their five matches. The strongest individual scenario nevertheless remains Yokohama leading at half-time and securing the full-time win, supported by their current scoring advantage of 2.2 to 1.2.