Žalgiris vs FA Šiauliai: match statistics

Žalgiris have a clearly superior season record: they have won 12 of 26 matches and scored 40 goals, while FA Šiauliai have managed just 4 wins in 28 games and scored 27 goals. At home, the hosts average 2.00 goals per match with an xG of 1.61, whereas the visitors score just 0.93 goals per away game and have not won a single match on the road. Šiauliai’s away defense concedes an average of 1.86 goals and allows opponents an xG of 1.82, creating favourable conditions for Žalgiris to exploit their attacking advantage. However, both teams are coming off a poor run of five matches, recording 1 win and 4 defeats each, while the hosts conceded as many as 14 goals during that period. Despite this inconsistency, home advantage, a 54% home-win rate and Žalgiris’ significantly higher shot-conversion rate of 15% compared with 8% all point towards a home victory.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by weak defenses: Žalgiris concede an average of 2.14 goals, while FA Šiauliai concede 1.86 goals per match. Across their last five fixtures, both teams have conceded even more—2.8 and 2.4 goals per match, respectively—while recording the same average of 1.2 goals scored. FA Šiauliai recorded BTTS in 64% of their matches this season and in 60% of their last five, whereas Žalgiris’ figures stand at 43% and 40%, reducing confidence in the pick. However, both teams create a comparable number of chances, with xG of 1.31 and 1.37 this season, while the hosts have increased their xG to 1.55 across their last five matches. The attacking signals only narrowly outweigh the low scoring efficiency, but the vulnerability of both defenses makes goals at both ends slightly more likely than a scenario in which one team fails to score.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as at least two goals were scored in 86% of Žalgiris matches and 79% of FA Šiauliai matches. Both defenses allow plenty of chances: the hosts concede an average of 2.14 goals per match, while the visitors concede 1.86, with average xG against figures of 1.63 and 1.82, respectively. Recent form further increases the projection, as Žalgiris conceded 14 goals in their previous five matches, while FA Šiauliai conceded 12, with both teams scoring six goals. During this period, the home side generated 1.55 xG per match, while their opponents averaged 4.21 shots on target, supporting the scenario of goals at both ends. The Over 2.5 line also offers value, but carries clearly greater risk, making Over 1.5 goals the most stable signal.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a win for FA Šiauliai, as Žalgiris have been level at the break in 60% of their last five matches. The hosts score just 0.36 goals per match before half-time and concede 1.21, while the visitors also average 0.36 goals in this period but allow their opponents 0.93. FA Šiauliai create slightly more over the full match, with an average xG of 1.37 compared with Žalgiris’ 1.31, and also register more shots on target, 4.21 to 3.50. Žalgiris’ defense is particularly vulnerable to conceding, with the team allowing an average of 2.14 goals per match—and as many as 2.8 across their last five games—which increases the visitors’ chances of completing the turnaround after an evenly matched start.