Zarzis vs Hammam-Sousse: match statistics

Zarzis have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 7 goals and conceding just 3 during that period, while Hammam-Sousse have a record of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. The hosts won their only home match to date, kept a clean sheet and averaged 1.77 xG, while allowing just 0.50 xG at their own end. Hammam-Sousse are yet to score away from home, average only 2 shots per match and have not registered a single shot on target. The difference in control is also clear: Zarzis average 68% possession at home, compared with 35% for the visitors away from home. With Hammam-Sousse recording just 0.37 xG and a 100% away-loss rate, a home win is the most likely outcome, probably without conceding.

The strongest signal is Hammam-Sousse’s very limited attacking potential: in their only away match so far, the team failed to score, managed just 2 shots, and registered no shot on target. Zarzis kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home matches, while their opponents failed to score in 100% of those fixtures, strongly supporting the BTTS - No outcome, meaning that at least one team will remain goalless. The visitors’ average xG is just 0.37, while Zarzis allow 1.08 xG at home, so even with some improvement, the visitors do not look likely to score. In the last 5 matches, BTTS occurred for both teams in only 40% of cases, while Zarzis conceded an average of just 0.6 goals per match. The “No” selection is more likely, with the most realistic scenario being a Zarzis goal and no effective response from Hammam-Sousse.

The match profile points to a limited number of chances, particularly for Hammam-Sousse: the visitors average just 0.37 xG and 2.0 shots per match, compared with Zarzis’ 0.84 xG and 6.0 shots. In their last five matches, Zarzis conceded only 0.6 goals per game, while both teams recorded games with Over 2.5 goals in just 40% of cases. The projected total of 1.92 goals also remains below the league average of 2.0 goals per match. The 3.5 line clearly favors the under, as beating it would require a scoreline significantly above the visitors’ current attacking output and the hosts’ defensive profile.

The strongest scenario is a Zarzis win both at half-time and at full-time (1/1), although the data also clearly points to a cautious opening. Zarzis have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.4 goals and conceding just 0.6, while Hammam-Sousse have lost 2 of their 5 games during this period and conceded an average of 1.0 goal. The hosts’ advantage is evident in the quality of chances: their average xG stands at 0.84, compared with just 0.37 for the visitors, while their opponents allow chances worth as much as 2.13 xG. At half-time, both teams were level in 60% of their last five appearances, which is why the draw at the break followed by a home win (X/1) also carries a high probability of 25%. After the break, Zarzis score an average of 1.0 goal while conceding just 0.2, favouring a turnaround in a balanced match and allowing them to hold the lead if they take it earlier.