Saudi Arabia - Professional League01/03/2026, 05:30 PMUpdated ang data noong September 06, 2026

Al Ittihad vs Al Taawon: mga stats ng match

Al Ittihad

1 : 0half-time 0:0

Al Taawon

125%(1.58)

X20%(3.90)

255%(4.76)

BTTS Over/Under HT/FT

Pick: 2Talo

Pick score:27.15

Value:161.80%

Ipinapakita ng Al Taawon ang outstanding away form na may streak ng limang sunod-sunod na panalo at 100% effectiveness sa away matches ngayong season. Ang visiting team ay may impressive record na 9 wins, 1 draw, at only 1 defeat, na may goal difference na +14 sa buong season. Sa kabilang banda, ang Al Ittihad ay average lang ang performance at home, nananalo lamang sa 50% ng home matches, may goal balance na 0, at mataas na rate na 50% matches without scoring sa sarili nilang stadium. Hindi lang undefeated ang Al Taawon sa away games, hindi rin sila nag-fail mag-score kahit minsan on the road (FTS% 0%), na nagpapatunay ng kanilang offensive effectiveness. Ang difference sa form, scoring efficiency, at defensive stability ay malinaw na pabor sa guests.

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Al Ittihad vs Al Taawon: form, goals at mahahalagang stats

Mahahalagang detalye ng match

Naglaro ang Al Ittihad laban sa Al Taawon sa Professional League (Saudi Arabia). Nilaro ang match noong 3 January 2026. Final score: 1:0.

Current na form

Al Ittihad: 3-1-1 sa last five matches at 2.00 points per match. Al Taawon: 4-1-0 at 2.60 points per match.

Stats ng goals

Al Ittihad ay may 2.00 goals na na-score at 1.45 na na-concede bawat match. Ang Al Taawon naman ay may 2.45 na na-score at 1.18 na na-concede. Average ng liga: 3.07 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: Al Ittihad 55%, Al Taawon 55%. Over 2.5: Al Ittihad 45%, Al Taawon 55%. League level: BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 57%.

xG, shots at style ng laro

Al Ittihad ang may mas mataas na xG per match: 1.65 vs 1.27. May average na 13.2 shots bawat match ang Al Ittihad, habang 11.4 naman ang Al Taawon.

First at second half

Nangunguna ang Al Ittihad sa half-time sa 36% ng matches at nakaka-score ng 1.09 goals pagkatapos ng break. Para sa Al Taawon, 55% at 1.45 ang mga value.

Goals ayon sa minuto

Al Ittihad: 76-90+ (7 goals). Al Taawon: 61-75 (7 goals). Historical goal distribution ito, hindi prediction ng exact goal minute.

Context ng liga

Professional League: 3.07 goals per match, BTTS 63% at Over 2.5 57%.

Head-to-head record

Wala pang sapat na head-to-head sample para gawing pangunahing comparison.

Archived na pre-match analysis

Ginawa ang analysis na ito bago ang kick-off. Ang conclusions ay base lang sa data na available bago ang match at hindi kasama ang final result o post-match statistics.

General match analysis

Tingnan ang statistical overview

Ayon sa half

0 : 0

1st half

1 : 0

2nd half

Stats ng match

63Possession (%)37

Al IttihadAl Taawon

19Shots7

Al IttihadAl Taawon

7Shots on target0

Al IttihadAl Taawon

2.25xG0.6

Al IttihadAl Taawon

7Corners1

Al IttihadAl Taawon

78Dangerous attacks21

Al IttihadAl Taawon

17Fouls5

Al IttihadAl Taawon

1Cards1

Al IttihadAl Taawon

Pre-match na profile— ano ang sinasabi ng season numbers?

Team profile ito batay sa season data at form. Lalabas lang ang match-flow statistics kapag tapos na ang fixture.

1.82Points bawat match2.55

Al IttihadAl Taawon

2Goals na na-score / match2.45

Al IttihadAl Taawon

1.45Goals na na-concede / match1.18

Al IttihadAl Taawon

1.65xG for1.27

Al IttihadAl Taawon

62%Average na possession49%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

5.27Shots on target bawat match4.36

Al IttihadAl Taawon

18%Clean sheets36%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

55%Parehong teams naka-score55%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

Stats ng teams— alin ang mas efficient na team?

Comparison ng attack at defence ng dalawang teams sa current season.

13.18Shots bawat match11.45

Al IttihadAl Taawon

5.27Shots on target4.36

Al IttihadAl Taawon

15.2%Shot conversion21.4%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

62%Possession49%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

1.65xG for1.27

Al IttihadAl Taawon

1.22xG against1.39

Al IttihadAl Taawon

Quality ng shooting

Al Ittihad: Efficient ang finishingAl Taawon: Efficient ang finishing

	Al Ittihad	Al Taawon
Accuracy ng shots on target	40%	38%
Quality ng chances (xG bawat shot)	0.13	0.11
Finishing (goals bawat shot on target)	0.38	0.56

Kapag nasa 0.08 ang xG per shot, kadalasan long-range attempts iyon; ang 0.15+ ay karaniwang chances sa box. Galing sa possession, shot volume at conversion ang style label.

* Ipinapakita ng xG (expected goals) kung ilang goals ang inaasahang makuha ng team mula sa chances nito. Kapag mas mataas ang actual goals kaysa xG, above average ang finishing; kapag mas mababa, may missed chances.

Form ng teams— alin ang mas maganda ang current form?

Last five matches at season record, overall at may home-away split.

Al Taawon ang 30% better sa: form sa last 5 matches.

2 pts / match - Al Ittihad · 2.6 pts / match - Al Taawon

Al Ittihad

DLWWW

Result split ngayong season

55% W18% R27% P

Season record (W-D-L)

6-2-3

1.82 pts / match · goal difference +6

Last 5 (W-D-L)

3-1-1

2.00 pts / match

Record ng team sa home (W-D-L)

3-0-3

Last 5 sa home

2-0-3

LLLWW

Averages sa last 5 matches

Goals na na-score: 2.2Goals na na-concede: 1.4xG: 1.75Opponent xG: 1.13BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 60%

Al Taawon

WWDWW

Unbeaten sa last 5 matches

Result split ngayong season

82% W9% R9% P

Season record (W-D-L)

9-1-1

2.55 pts / match · goal difference +14

Last 5 (W-D-L)

4-1-0

2.60 pts / match

Record ng team sa away (W-D-L)

5-0-0

Last 5 sa away

5-0-0

WWWWW

Averages sa last 5 matches

Goals na na-score: 2.2Goals na na-concede: 0.6xG: 1.41Opponent xG: 1.45BTTS: 40%Over 2.5: 20%

Goals— paano nag-i-score at nagko-concede ang dalawang teams?

Ilang goals ang sini-score at kino-concede ng dalawang teams, pati kung gaano kadalas silang mag-clean sheet o hindi maka-score.

Al Taawon ang 23% better sa: goals scored per match.

2 goals / match - Al Ittihad · 2.45 goals / match - Al Taawon

Al Taawon ang 23% better sa: goals conceded per match.

1.45 goals / match - Al Ittihad · 1.18 goals / match - Al Taawon

Scoring profile ng Al Ittihad: malakas

Nakaka-score ang Al Ittihad sa 73% ng matches (8 sa 11 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Al Taawon sa 36% (4 sa 11 matches).

Scoring profile ng Al Taawon: napakalakas

Nakaka-score ang Al Taawon sa 91% ng matches (10 sa 11 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Al Ittihad sa 18% (2 sa 11 matches).

22Goals na na-score (season)27

Al IttihadAl Taawon

16Goals na na-concede (season)13

Al IttihadAl Taawon

3.45Average ng goals sa match3.64

Al IttihadAl Taawon

11Goals na na-score (last 5)11

Al IttihadAl Taawon

7Goals na na-concede (last 5)3

Al IttihadAl Taawon

Al Ittihad

18%

Clean sheets2 sa 11 matches

27%

No goal3 sa 11 matches

Al Taawon

36%

Clean sheets4 sa 11 matches

No goal1 sa 11 matches

Gaano kadalas silang maka-score ng hindi bababa sa...

73%1 goal91%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

55%2 goals64%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

36%3 goals36%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

27%4 goals27%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

Gaano kadalas silang mag-concede ng hindi bababa sa...

82%1 goal64%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

45%2 goals27%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

9%3 goals9%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

9%4 goals9%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

* Kasama sa statistics ang home at away matches ng dalawang teams sa current season.

Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)— gaano kadalas nakaka-score ang parehong teams?

Gaano kadalas may goals ang magkabilang panig sa matches ng teams, kumpara sa league average.

55%

Al Ittihad - BTTS6 sa 11 matches

55%

Al Taawon - BTTS6 sa 11 matches

63%

Average ng liga

Mga pattern ng goal

27%BTTS sa half-time18%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

18%BTTS sa parehong halves9%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

36%Naka-score sa parehong halves45%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

BTTS at goal count

45%Min. 3 goals at BTTS45%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

0%Min. 3 goals na walang BTTS9%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

60%BTTS - last 540%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

Mga goal line (Over/Under)— gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal lines ang kanilang matches?

Gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal thresholds ang matches ng teams, sa full match at bawat half.

Buong match - comparison ng teams (Over)

100%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)100%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

82%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)82%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

45%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)55%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

36%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)45%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

27%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)45%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

Over / Under - Al Ittihad

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 100%Under 0%

Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 82%Under 18%

Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 45%Under 55%

Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 36%Under 64%

Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 27%Under 73%

Over / Under - Al Taawon

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 100%Under 0%

Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 82%Under 18%

Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 55%Under 45%

Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 45%Under 55%

Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 45%Under 55%

1st half

82%Min. 1 goal bago ang half-time64%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

55%Min. 2 goals bago ang half-time36%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

27%Min. 3 goals bago ang half-time27%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

2nd half

91%Min. 1 goal pagkatapos ng half-time100%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

36%Min. 2 goals pagkatapos ng half-time64%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

18%Min. 3 goals pagkatapos ng half-time36%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

Mga half ng match— saang half mas madalas silang maka-score?

Paano nahahati sa first at second half ang performance: goals, points, clean sheets at state sa half-time.

Al Taawon ang 47% better sa: form sa first half (half-time points).

1.36 pts / match - Al Ittihad · 2 pts / match - Al Taawon

Al Ittihad - state sa half-time

36% nangunguna27% tabla36% nahuhuli

Al Taawon - state sa half-time

55% nangunguna36% tabla9% nahuhuli

Bago ang half-time (1st half)

1.36Points bawat match (1st half)2

Al IttihadAl Taawon

0.91Goals na na-score (1st half)1

Al IttihadAl Taawon

0.91Goals na na-concede (1st half)0.27

Al IttihadAl Taawon

1.82Average ng goals (1st half)1.27

Al IttihadAl Taawon

36%Clean sheet bago ang half-time73%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

55%Walang goal bago ang half-time45%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

Pagkatapos ng half-time (2nd half)

1.82Points bawat match (2nd half)1.91

Al IttihadAl Taawon

1.09Goals na na-score (2nd half)1.45

Al IttihadAl Taawon

0.55Goals na na-concede (2nd half)0.91

Al IttihadAl Taawon

1.64Average ng goals (2nd half)2.36

Al IttihadAl Taawon

45%Clean sheet pagkatapos ng half-time45%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

36%Walang goal pagkatapos ng half-time18%

Al IttihadAl Taawon

Al Ittihad - mga result sa second half

55% W18% R27% P

Half-time points

Half-time goals

Goal difference sa 1st half

Second-half points

Goal difference sa 2nd half

1.36

PPG bago ang half-time

Lead holding153%

Leading sa half-time sa 36% ng matches at nananalo sa 55%. Nanalo rin sa ilang matches kahit walang half-time lead.

Defence after half-time-0.4

Stable ang defence sa buong match.

Al Taawon - mga result sa second half

55% W27% R18% P

Half-time points

Half-time goals

Goal difference sa 1st half

Second-half points

Goal difference sa 2nd half

2.00

PPG bago ang half-time

Lead holding149%

Leading sa half-time sa 55% ng matches at nananalo sa 82%. Nanalo rin sa ilang matches kahit walang half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.6

Nagko-concede ng 0.6 more goals per match pagkatapos ng half-time - bumababa ang defensive level sa second half.

Al Ittihad - last 5 matches per half
	1st half	2nd half
Points bawat match	1.60	1.80
Goals na na-score / match	0.8	1.4
Goals na na-concede / match	0.8	0.6
Average ng goals sa match	1.6	2.0
1 goal	80%	100%
2 goals	60%	40%
3 goals	20%	20%
Clean sheet	60%	40%
No goal	40%	40%
Goal difference	0	+4

Half-time: 40% nangunguna - 40% tabla - 20% nahuhuli

2nd half: 60% panalo - 0% tabla - 40% talo

BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 20% - Total goals sa half-time: 4

Al Taawon - last 5 matches per half
	1st half	2nd half
Points bawat match	1.80	2.20
Goals na na-score / match	0.8	1.4
Goals na na-concede / match	0.0	0.6
Average ng goals sa match	0.8	2.0
1 goal	40%	100%
2 goals	20%	60%
3 goals	20%	20%
Clean sheet	100%	60%
No goal	60%	0%
Goal difference	+4	+4

Half-time: 40% nangunguna - 60% tabla - 0% nahuhuli

2nd half: 60% panalo - 40% tabla - 0% talo

BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 0% - Total goals sa half-time: 4

* Ipinapakita ng colors sa tables ang event frequency: green ay common, yellow ay moderate, red ay rare. Frequency ito, hindi team rating.

Goals ayon sa minuto— kailan dumarating ang goals?

Mga phase ng match kung kailan pinakamadalas maka-score at mag-concede ang dalawang teams.

Al Ittihad

Na-scoreNa-concede

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 31-45 (5). Balance ng late goals (76-90): +6 - malakas sa late phases.

Al Taawon

Na-scoreNa-concede

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 61-75 (7 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 76-90 (5). Balance ng late goals (76-90): 0.

* Kasama sa buckets na 31-45 at 76-90 ang added-time goals.

Karagdagang team indicators— ano ang ipinapakita ng xG, efficiency at form?

Comparison ng chance quality, results at trends mula sa completed matches ngayong season.

Profile ng match

3.54

Estimated na goals

attack laban sa opponent defence

1.6 : 2.0

Estimated na hati ng goals

home : away

115%

Pace kumpara sa liga

100% = average ng liga

55%

Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)

average mula sa seasons ng dalawang teams

-100%

Derby effect

H2H goals kumpara sa typical matches

66%

BTTS estimate

mula sa scoring frequency ng dalawang teams

0:0 risk

mga 1 sa bawat 50 matches

2-3

Pinakakaraniwang goal range

attack vs defence sa magkabilang panig

Al Ittihad

Net xG balance

Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.

+0.43

Results kumpara sa xG

Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.

+0.12

Points kumpara sa goal balance

Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.

-1.6 pts

Efficiency ng finishing

Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.

+0.35

Efficiency ng defence

Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.

-0.23

Attack vs league

Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.

127%

Defence vs league

Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.

97%

Trend ng form

Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.

+0.18

Mas malakas sa second half?

Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.

+0.2

Mga late goal

32% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 14% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.

32%

Al Taawon

Net xG balance

Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.

-0.12

Results kumpara sa xG

Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.

+1.39

Points kumpara sa goal balance

Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.

+1.2 pts

Efficiency ng finishing

Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.

+1.18

Efficiency ng defence

Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.

+0.21

Attack vs league

Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.

164%

Defence vs league

Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.

75%

Trend ng form

Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.

+0.05

Mas malakas sa second half?

Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.

+0.4

Mga late goal

19% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 19% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.

19%

* Ang estimated goals, goal split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk at goal range ay galing sa public season averages at frequencies ng dalawang teams. Statistical match profile ito, hindi private model prediction o betting pick. Ang iba pang indicators ay naglalarawan ng completed matches sa season.

Context ng liga— mataas ba ang scoring sa league na ito?

Paano nagko-compare ang dalawang teams sa league-wide averages ng Professional League.

Teams kumpara sa liga

	Al Ittihad	Liga	Al Taawon
Average ng goals sa match	▲ 3.45	3.07	▲ 3.64
Parehong teams naka-score	▼ 55%	63%	▼ 55%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)	▼ 45%	57%	▼ 55%
Clean sheets	▼ 18%	22%	▲ 36%
Goal bago ang half-time	▲ 82%	74%	▼ 64%
Goal pagkatapos ng half-time	▲ 91%	79%	▲ 100%

^ green = mas mataas sa league average, ˇ red = mas mababa sa league average. Direction ng gap ang ipinapakita nito, hindi team rating.

3.07

Average goals bawat match

63%

Parehong teams naka-score

57%

Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)

22%

Clean sheets

1.58

Home goals bawat match

1.49

Away goals bawat match

+6%

Advantage ng home attack

+6%

Advantage ng home defence

+3%

Kabuuang home advantage

Goals sa 1st half (buong liga)

74%

1 goal

43%

2 goals

19%

3 goals

4 goals

Goals sa 2nd half (buong liga)

79%

1 goal

53%

2 goals

23%

3 goals

10%

4 goals

Lineups at player events

Verified starters, substitutes at recorded events para sa match.

Home team

Starting lineup

1Predrag Rajković 2Danilo Luís Hélio Pereira 7N'Golo Kanté 8Fábio Henrique Tavares 9Karim Benzema 13Muhannad Shanqeeti⚽ 1 · lumabas 90'15Hasan Kadesh 19Moussa DiabyA 1 · lumabas 82'20Ahmed Mohammed Sharahili🟨 1 · lumabas 69'34Steven Bergwijnlumabas 90'78Roger Fernandes

Substitutes

11Saleh Khalid Al Shehripumasok 1'14Awad Haidar Al Nashripumasok 90'22Abdulaziz Ali Al Bishipumasok 1'27Ahmed Alghamdipumasok 82'32Ahmed Yousef Al Julaydanpumasok 90'41Mohammed Ahmed Fallatahpumasok 1'50Mohammed Saleem Hamid Alabsipumasok 1'

66Mohammed Ali Barnawipumasok 1'

80Hamed Al Ghamdipumasok 69'

Away team

Starting lineup

1Mailson Tenorio dos Santos 3Andrei Girotto 5Mohammed Mater Mahzari 6Victor Hugo Ramos de Souzalumabas 67'7Mohammed Marzouq Al Kuwaykibilumabas 46'8Flavio Medeiros da Silva 10Roger Beyker Martínez Tobinsonlumabas 74'18Achraf El Mahdioui 27Sultan Madash 32Muteb Al Mufarrij 55Muhammad Walid Al Dosari 77Abdulelah Abdulelahpumasok 67' · lumabas 67'

Substitutes

2Meshal Alaelipumasok 1'9Abdulfattah Mohamed Adampumasok 74'13Abdulquddus Atiahpumasok 1'17Mohammed bin Saleh bin Mohammed Al-Aqelpumasok 1'19Cristhoper Douglas Zambrano Méndezpumasok 67'29Ahmed Saleh Bahusaynpumasok 1'66Mohammed Bassam Alhurayjipumasok 46'

Timeline ng match

Mga goal, card at substitution ayon sa pagkakasunod ng oras.

46'
Al TaawonSubstitutionPumasok: Mohammed Bassam AlhurayjiLumabas: Mohammed Marzouq Al Kuwaykibi
50'
Al IttihadGoalMuhannad ShanqeetiAssist: Moussa Diaby
56'
Al IttihadYellow cardAhmed Mohammed Sharahili
69'
Al IttihadSubstitutionPumasok: Hamed Al GhamdiLumabas: Ahmed Mohammed Sharahili
74'
Al TaawonSubstitutionPumasok: Abdulfattah Mohamed AdamLumabas: Roger Beyker Martínez Tobinson
82'
Al IttihadSubstitutionPumasok: Ahmed AlghamdiLumabas: Moussa Diaby

Mga madalas itanong

Ano ang result ng Al Ittihad vs Al Taawon?

Natapos ang Professional League match sa score na Al Ittihad 1:0 Al Taawon. Nasa page na ito ang match statistics, half-by-half data at head-to-head record.

Ano ang ipinapakita ng goal statistics bago ang Al Ittihad vs Al Taawon?

Al Ittihad scores 2.00 goals per match at Al Taawon 2.45. Ang Professional League average ay 3.07 goals, may Over 2.5 sa 57% ng matches. BTTS: Al Ittihad 55%, Al Taawon 55%.

Ano ang current form ng Al Ittihad at Al Taawon?

Sa last 5 matches, ang Al Ittihad ay 3-1-1 (2.00 points per match), habang ang Al Taawon ay 4-1-0 (2.60 points per match).

Saan makikita ang betting pick at full analysis ng Al Ittihad vs Al Taawon?

Nasa page na ito ang statistical context: form, H2H, goals, BTTS at Over/Under. Makikita sa NoFluffPicks app ang betting pick, value bet at full reasoning.